Great Wall Securities has released a research report stating that the accelerated expansion of hyperscale cloud service providers and the continuous surge in demand for artificial intelligence computing power are key market drivers. Three-dimensional integration technology for chips increases computing density by 3-5 times within the same area, making thermal dissipation a critical technical bottleneck that urgently needs a breakthrough. As GPU power consumption enters the 2kW+ range, traditional cooling methods are gradually approaching their limits. Micro-channel liquid cold plates, leveraging their technical advantages, can effectively shorten the heat transfer path. The process of domestic substitution for high-end thermal management components is accelerating significantly, and the local supply chain is expected to enter a growth phase characterized by increases in both volume and price.

The main viewpoints from Great Wall Securities are as follows: AI is propelling computing infrastructure into a rapid construction phase. The demand for high computing power is driving a continuous increase in chip power consumption, making thermal management a technical bottleneck. According to data from the Zhongshang Industrial Research Institute, driven by the accelerated layout of hyperscale cloud service providers and the explosive growth in AI computing demand, global server shipments reached approximately 16 million units in 2024, with an expected 16.3 million units in 2025. Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology indicates that global data production reached 173.4 ZB in 2024. It is projected that new global data volume will reach 213.56 ZB in 2025 and climb to 527.47 ZB by 2029. Three-dimensional chip integration technology boosts computing density by 3-5 times within the same footprint, turning heat dissipation into a pressing technical challenge.

Integrated heat spreaders remain the mainstream choice, while the penetration rate of micro-channel liquid cold plates is currently relatively low. Within the complex architecture of 3D integration, a single cooling method struggles to address thermal management challenges alone. Currently, metal heat spreaders, primarily copper-based, are still the predominant choice. Copper has a thermal conductivity of 385W/(m·K), which is 1.3 times that of gold and over three times that of ceramics or silicon. As GPU power consumption surpasses 2kW, traditional cooling capabilities near their limits. Micro-channel liquid cold plates offer a technical advantage by effectively shortening the heat transfer path.

Rapidly growing demand and the development of domestic computing power are accelerating the substitution process for domestic heat spreaders. The global market for integrated heat spreaders is predominantly led by manufacturers from Japan, the United States, and the Taiwan region of China. The Taiwan region of China is the largest production base, accounting for approximately 57% of the global market share in 2024. Mainland Chinese enterprises collectively held a 4.98% global share in 2024, indicating significant room for growth. Currently, leading global company Auras is actively expanding its production capacity, while the mainland's computing power industry is also steadily growing. As requirements for thermal solutions from AI chips and advanced packaging continue to rise, the prospects for the thermal management sector are improving further. Domestic thermal management companies, leveraging localized supply chains and rapid response advantages, are continuously catching up in product technology and processes. Coupled with downstream customers' supply chain security considerations, the domestic substitution process for high-end thermal components is accelerating markedly. The local industrial chain is poised for a growth stage featuring simultaneous increases in volume and price.

Recommended companies to watch include: Liquid Cooling: Hong Rita, Auras, Chuanzhong Technology, Envicool, CCTC, Topkey, Gaolan Co., Shenling Environment. PCB: Kexiang, Fastprint, Wus, Shennan Circuits, Suntae. Diamond Heat Spreaders: SF Diamond, Wald. Connectors: Dingtong Communication, Recodeal. Cables: Xinya.

Risk warnings include potential global economic weakness, fluctuations in worldwide computing demand, volatility in raw material prices for metal heat spreaders, and risks associated with technology development falling short of expectations.