Jefferies: Apple's App Store Commission Reduction to Have Low Single-Digit Positive Impact on Chinese Entertainment Firms' Profits

Stock News
03/13

Jefferies has released a research report indicating that Apple's reduction of commission rates in China's App Store, including lowering the commission rate for in-app purchases and paid app transactions from 30% to 25%, is a positive factor for the overall entertainment sector. The firm expects the impact on the profits of major companies this year to be in the low single digits. Taking Tencent as an example, the market anticipates its smartphone game revenue this year to grow 11.7% year-on-year to RMB 256 billion, accounting for 31% of total revenue. Jefferies estimates that about 70% of this comes from the domestic market, amounting to approximately RMB 180 billion. Assuming 30% of revenue is derived from iOS, and the commission rate drops from 30% to 25%, the firm expects a low single-digit positive impact on profits by 2026. For NetEase, the market projects its gaming revenue this year to increase about 8.5% year-on-year to RMB 97 billion, representing 80% of total revenue. Jefferies estimates 90% comes from the domestic market, with 40% of gaming revenue originating from iOS. Considering the new measures took effect in mid-March, the expected impact of the commission rate reduction on this year's profits is less than 3%. As for Kuaishou-WR, the market expects its live-streaming revenue this year to remain flat at RMB 39.4 billion, accounting for 25% of total revenue. Assuming 25% comes from iOS, the positive impact of the commission rate cut on this year's profits is estimated to be below 2%. Regarding online music platforms, Jefferies anticipates the adjustment will have a positive impact of about 1% and 2% on the profits of Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music this year, respectively.

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