Spot Gold: On July 29, market sentiment was driven by concerns that the Federal Reserve might unexpectedly raise interest rates this week, causing gold prices to plunge on Tuesday. As of Wednesday's Asian session, the decline continued.

Spot gold closed sharply lower by nearly $48 on Tuesday, settling near the $4,028/oz mark. In early Asian trading on Wednesday, prices further slipped to $4,010/oz. The U.S. dollar remained stable near a one-month high, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Interest rate swap markets suggest a roughly one-third probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. It is unusual for such high uncertainty to persist so close to a rate decision, according to recent market patterns.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade in a choppy range. The Federal Reserve's policy action tonight is the key variable determining whether the metal can break below $4,000 and set new lows. Under the influence of volatile trading, investor sentiment is prone to imbalance, with "bottom-fishing" impulses frequently emerging. However, a clear-headed assessment shows that a decline in gold to $3,800 is a high-probability event. Market movements are not subject to personal will, and patience is the only effective approach.

Looking at the short-term view, gold's trend remains weak. The decline continued from yesterday, and the $4,000–$3,990 zone has become a critical support band. In this range-bound market, it is unclear whether this downward move will breach the support level, which largely depends on tonight's news flow. If gold bounces upon reaching the support zone, volatile consolidation will continue. Conversely, a break below support would signal the start of a dip towards $3,960 or $3,940. The $3,960 level is a key short-term bull-bear pivot point. A break lower would lead to further losses toward $3,800, while holding it would keep the range intact, potentially allowing a test of $4,100.

For tonight's trading, key resistance is seen at the $4,065–$4,085 zone, with support at $4,020–$4,000. Gold trading strategy: Aggressive traders can consider buying on a pullback to $4,020±2, while conservative traders wait for $4,000±2. For selling, an aggressive approach is to short near $4,065±2, with a conservative entry at $4,085±2. Set stop-losses at $15 each, targeting $30–$50 per trade. [GOLD pivot: $4,050/oz. The above views are for reference only; diversify positions and control risks strictly.]

WTI Crude Oil: On Wednesday (July 29) during the Asian session, tensions in the Middle East escalated again, causing U.S. crude oil prices to rebound from a decline. News reports indicated that Iran launched attacks on U.S. forces, leading to joint military operations by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. This exacerbated concerns about the worsening situation in the Middle East, reintroducing geopolitical risk premiums and driving a sharp rally in international crude oil prices. Uncertainty in the energy market has increased, with fears of further risk expansion, keeping the oil market in a highly volatile pattern.

From a technical perspective, the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation, the rapid return of risk premiums, coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar, have supported a corrective rebound for international oil prices after consecutive declines. On the daily chart, momentum has improved, and the short-term correction pace has paused, but a definitive bullish trend has not yet formed. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving average system shows signs of turning upward, indicating a significant increase in buying pressure. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has recovered from low levels to the neutral-to-bullish range, suggesting that short-term oversold pressure has been released, and a short-cycle bullish structure is initially forming. Oil prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias in a volatile manner today, with close attention to market sentiment changes.

Key resistance levels for tonight are seen at $83.5 and $84.2, with support at $79.5 and $77.8. Crude oil trading strategy: Consider buying on dips to $79.6 or $78.0, and selling on rallies to $83.5 or $84.2. Set stop-losses at 1.0 point each, targeting a profit of $3.0 per barrel!