Tesla Motors is expected to announce its third-quarter 2025 delivery report in early October, with multiple investment banks having already raised their delivery forecasts ahead of the release. Goldman Sachs analysts previously increased their delivery predictions and raised their target price, while UBS analysts this week also elevated their delivery estimates above the prevailing market consensus, though they maintain their "Sell" rating on Tesla Motors stock.

UBS now forecasts Tesla Motors' third-quarter deliveries at 475,000 vehicles, representing a 3% increase year-over-year and a 24% increase quarter-over-quarter, significantly higher than their previous estimate of 431,000 units. This figure exceeds the Visible Alpha consensus by approximately 8%, but aligns more closely with buy-side institutional expectations, which generally anticipate deliveries in the 470,000 to 475,000 range.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak stated in a Monday report:

"We believe our new forecast is more aligned with buy-side expectations for the 470,000 to 475,000 range."

However, he also noted:

"Although the final numbers may meet buy-side expectations, we typically find that stock prices still react based on whether results exceed or fall short of the media's 'headline numbers.'"

Tesla Motors shares rose 4.16% during Wednesday's trading session, bringing year-to-date gains to nearly 17%.

In his report, Spak indicated that UBS raised its forecast due to better-than-expected delivery performance across multiple markets during the third quarter.

First, in the US market, consumer demand surged as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) before its expiration at the end of September 2025. UBS believes this quarter could set the highest US quarterly delivery record since mid-2023, potentially even the highest on record. However, analysts also warn that current strong demand likely represents "demand pull-forward," meaning deliveries could decline quarter-over-quarter in Q4 even if Tesla Motors launches a "lower-priced" Model Y.

The European market also shows signs of recovery. Data indicates that Tesla Motors' deliveries in Europe's top eight markets increased approximately 22% quarter-over-quarter during the first two months of Q3. In China, retail deliveries (wholesale minus exports) grew about 45% quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating solid performance. Additionally, UBS highlighted noteworthy delivery growth in Turkey and South Korea.

Regarding inventory, UBS expects quarterly deliveries to exceed production by approximately 7%, which should help Tesla Motors reduce inventory levels. In comparison, production exceeded deliveries by about 26,000 units in Q2 2025, representing 6%.

UBS also anticipates that Tesla Motors will disclose its energy storage system deployment figures for the quarter in its earnings report. Despite verification challenges due to accounting recognition rules, UBS predicts deployments of 10.4GWh, an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase, essentially matching the Visible Alpha market consensus of 10.9GWh and above the previous quarter's 9.6GWh. Spak reminds investors that the energy storage business experiences cyclical fluctuations, and single-quarter data should not be over-interpreted.

Looking ahead, UBS projects Q4 2025 deliveries at 428,000 vehicles, a 10% quarter-over-quarter decline and 14% year-over-year decrease. This estimate already factors in the launch of the Model Y Long Range variant in China and the potential introduction of a "lower-priced" Model Y in the US market.

For the full year, UBS raised its 2025 total delivery expectation from 1.51 million to 1.62 million vehicles, though this still represents a 9% year-over-year decline while matching market consensus. The 2026 delivery forecast was slightly reduced to 1.6 million vehicles, 14% below market consensus. UBS stated it will update its financial model after Tesla Motors releases actual delivery data on October 2.

Despite near-term improvements in delivery data, Spak emphasized in his report's conclusion:

"Tesla Motors' stock price is primarily driven by artificial intelligence market narratives rather than its core automotive business."