Aluminum stocks showed strength in late trading. By the close, CHALCO (02600) rose 5.77% to HK$11.74, NANSHAN AL INTL (02610) gained 3.69% to HK$44.94, and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) climbed 1.94% to HK$33.64.

Market sentiment remains favorable amid positive macroeconomic conditions, with investors awaiting key U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The latest ADP employment report showed private sector job losses of 32,000 in November—the largest decline since March 2023—falling far short of the expected 10,000-job increase. This has reinforced market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed next week.

Analysts noted that the recent secondary surge in aluminum prices was influenced by movements in silver and copper. Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels continue to provide solid support for aluminum prices. Although December marks a traditional off-season for consumption, downstream demand has not seen a significant decline, highlighting its resilience. Institutions recommend maintaining a bullish outlook on aluminum prices in the medium to long term.

Globally, aluminum supply growth remains constrained, keeping the market in a prolonged "tight balance." A key risk factor lies in Indonesia's capacity expansion plans, where cheap coal power and bauxite resources could lead to low-cost aluminum production. However, the actual scale of new capacity with confirmed power supply remains relatively limited, casting doubt on whether Indonesia can significantly accelerate supply growth.