Abstract

Anglogold Ashanti will report quarterly results on July 31, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview outlines expected revenue, margins, earnings per share, and institutional sentiment for the period.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, the market projects Anglogold Ashanti’s revenue at 3.19 billion US dollars with an estimated year-over-year increase of 37.88%, EBIT at 1.81 billion US dollars with a projected year-over-year rise of 53.85%, and EPS at 2.18 with a projected year-over-year increase of 93.76%. Based on the latest company mix, gold remains the core revenue stream, supported by stable by-product contributions; outlook points to firm realized prices and favorable operating leverage, with EPS growth outpacing revenue.

The main business is gold, contributing 3.15 billion US dollars last quarter, while by-products added 82.00 million US dollars; a sustained upturn in gold prices and steady grades are expected to support volumes and margin resilience. The most promising segment is gold, with last quarter revenue of 3.15 billion US dollars and strong price-led year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Anglogold Ashanti delivered revenue of 3.24 billion US dollars (up 64.85% year over year), a gross profit margin of 60.04%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 39.59%, and adjusted EPS of 2.51 (up 158.76% year over year). The quarter was highlighted by solid price realization and margin expansion, with EBIT of 1.84 billion US dollars underscoring cost discipline. Gold remained the main business, generating 3.15 billion US dollars, while by-products contributed 82.00 million US dollars; gold’s year-over-year growth reflected higher prices and stable operations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Gold revenue and margin trajectory

Gold is expected to continue driving the top line this quarter, aligned with the projected 3.19 billion US dollars in total revenue and a step-up in operating profitability. With unit costs largely fixed over the near term, higher realized prices can translate into outsized EBIT and EPS gains relative to revenue. The company’s reported gross margin of 60.04% last quarter provides a high base; sustaining margins near this level would imply healthy mine operating performance, while any dilution would likely come from mix and strip ratio changes rather than structural cost inflation.

Operationally, throughput and grades remain the key variables that can move margins within the quarter. If grades track plan and maintenance downtime is contained, incremental gold price strength could carry through to net profit given the recent net margin of 39.59%. The sensitivity of EPS to small movements in realized price suggests potential upside versus the 2.18 estimate if spot prices remain favorable through the reporting window.

Most promising growth driver: Price and operating leverage in gold

The current quarter’s EPS estimate of 2.18 implies strong conversion from revenue to earnings, consistent with a 53.85% projected increase in EBIT. This is indicative of operating leverage as volumes and prices work together, particularly when sustaining capital and stripping costs are balanced across the portfolio. Given that gold accounted for approximately 97.47% of revenue last quarter, incremental improvements in recovery rates and ore blending strategies can yield measurable margin expansion.

With the by-product contribution at 82.00 million US dollars, the revenue diversification is modest, so the primary growth driver remains gold price realization and stable unit costs. If the company maintains disciplined cost control and benefits from a supportive macro backdrop, EBIT growth can exceed the pace of revenue expansion, underpinning EPS outperformance relative to the top line.

Stock price drivers this quarter: Earnings quality and guidance tone

Investors will likely focus on the quality of earnings relative to the forecasts: the mix between price, volume, and cost savings. A repeat of last quarter’s EBIT delivery paired with clear commentary on sustaining margins would support a favorable re-rating, particularly if the company narrows cost guidance. The second focal point is guidance for production and all-in sustaining cost for the remainder of the year; tighter guidance bands would validate the projected 37.88% revenue growth and could reduce earnings volatility expectations.

Another key driver is capital allocation. If management signals a balanced approach to debt reduction and shareholder returns while maintaining growth capex, the market may view EPS durability as improving. Conversely, any indication of rising unit costs or disruptions at major operations would be a risk to sustaining last quarter’s 60.04% gross margin and 39.59% net margin.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the majority of institutions express a bullish stance, emphasizing price momentum in gold and the company’s improving earnings leverage; this positioning outweighs more cautious views centered on cost variability. Analysts highlight that the projected 53.85% increase in EBIT and 93.76% rise in EPS reflect supportive macro pricing and the company’s ability to translate higher prices into margins. Several well-followed research desks note that the market is prepared for volatility in realized prices, yet still sees upside to EPS if operations remain stable, indicating confidence in the current quarter’s conversion of revenue to earnings.

The bullish camp expects near-term catalysts from strong realized prices and potential positive surprise on margins if cost control holds, viewing the 2.18 EPS estimate as achievable with upside skew. In this view, the runway for free cash generation remains favorable given the 3.19 billion US dollars revenue baseline and high incremental margins, supporting constructive sentiment into and after the print.