Abstract

Cinemark will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles current-quarter forecasts and recent analyst commentary to frame expected revenue, margins, profitability, and EPS dynamics, while highlighting the segments and metrics most likely to influence share performance around the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts point to fourth-quarter revenue of $804.93 million, up 1.74% year over year, EBIT of $88.92 million, down 13.81% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.32, down 15.27% year over year. Admissions is expected to remain the central top-line driver with pricing and format mix as the primary levers, while concessions continues to anchor in-theater monetization and margin support given resilient per-guest spending patterns.

Among operating lines, concessions appears best positioned to sustain growth in dollar terms and profitability contribution, with last quarter’s concessions revenue at $336.70 million; this segment’s attach rate and per-capita mix will be focal points for upside risk during the quarter.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Cinemark reported revenue of $857.50 million (down 6.98% year over year), a gross profit margin of 48.98%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $49.50 million with a 5.77% net margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.84 (down 29.41% year over year). Net income fell 47.06% quarter on quarter, underscoring sequential variability tied to the release slate and seasonal attendance patterns.

By business line, the company generated $429.70 million in admissions revenue (50.11% of total), $336.70 million from concessions (39.27%), and $91.10 million in other revenue (10.62%), highlighting the dual importance of ticket sales and in-theater food and beverage sales for the aggregate margin structure.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Admissions revenue and attendance dynamics

The market expects Cinemark’s top line to grow 1.74% year over year in the fourth quarter, an outlook that places admissions volume and average ticket pricing at the center of the earnings debate. Admissions represented 50.11% of last quarter’s sales, reinforcing the outsized sensitivity of revenue to attendance levels and pricing mix. With the quarter spanning the key holiday corridor, investors typically look for the breadth of titles to counterbalance any concentration risk in a small number of tentpoles; breadth supports consistent week-to-week footfall and minimizes volatility in weekend peaks.

Pricing mix—especially the penetration of premium large-format and 3D/IMAX-like offerings—amplifies admissions yield, which can help offset variability in attendance. A higher mix of premium format tickets lifts the average ticket price without necessarily requiring outlier comp performance on traffic. Beyond pricing, calendar timing is a technical swing factor: if major titles clustered earlier or later in the quarter, revenue recognition and attendance phasing may skew intra-quarterly trends even if the overall quarter achieves forecast revenue. From a margin standpoint, admissions revenue carries fixed and semi-fixed costs (e.g., occupancy, labor scheduling) that make leverage sensitive to attendance; slight shortfalls can disproportionately affect operating profit, while even modest upside in admissions can meaningfully expand EBIT given the fixed-cost base.

The EBIT forecast of $88.92 million on $804.93 million in revenue implies an approximate EBIT margin of 11.05%, which is lower than the prior quarter’s implied EBIT margin of 13.35% (based on $114.40 million EBIT on $857.50 million revenue). This setup suggests that the street anticipates some operating deleverage despite the forecasted top-line expansion year over year, likely due to release mix, cost inflation, or a more conservative view on per-screen economics during the holiday period. As a result, even if admissions growth aligns with the revenue consensus, the degree to which fixed costs are flexed and schedules are optimized will be decisive for margin conversion and EPS.

Most promising business: Concessions monetization and margin carry-through

Concessions remains a high-visibility lever for aggregate profitability, and its performance often differentiates earnings outcomes when admissions trends are within a tight range. Last quarter’s concessions revenue of $336.70 million accounted for 39.27% of total sales, signaling the scale at which food and beverage contributes to both dollar revenue and incremental margin. Per-capita spend—driven by the mix of premium offerings, improved product variety, and pricing—often exhibits relative resilience even amid moderate fluctuations in attendance, creating a stabilizing effect on gross margin percentage.

Monitoring the relationship between premium format share and concessions per-capita is essential. Premium experiences can extend dwell time and enhance the propensity for higher-ticket concession items, supporting both top line and gross margin. Concessions carry structurally favorable unit economics compared with admissions, so even modest year-over-year growth in per-guest spend can support gross profit dollar growth that outpaces revenue growth. With the street modeling EBIT down 13.81% year over year against a 1.74% revenue increase, the degree to which concessions margin can offset operating deleverage in other lines becomes a key swing factor for EPS delivery.

Operationally, inventory discipline, supply cost management, and labor efficiency at concession stands can amplify the dollar contribution from this line. If the quarter features crowd-pleasing, family-friendly titles, basket size and frequency can trend positively, supporting both average spend and throughput. Conversely, if attendance skews toward more concentrated opening weekends, staffing and preparation must be tightly calibrated to avoid waste and protect margin. Heading into the print, concessions’ contribution to gross profit dollars and any commentary on per-capita trends will likely inform whether the forecasted EPS of $0.32 (down 15.27% year over year) carries risk or presents room for a positive surprise.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter: EPS delivery, guidance tone, and margin trajectory

The largest near-term swing factor for the shares is whether reported EPS converges with the $0.32 consensus and whether management’s outlook implies revenue and margin stabilization into the first half of 2026. With EBIT expected at $88.92 million and the implied EBIT margin roughly 11.05%, investors will closely parse whether operating expenses tracked in line with attendance and revenue, or whether temporary cost pressures (such as wage inflation or event-driven spending) diluted margins. Even if revenue lands near $804.93 million, the conversion of gross profit into operating profit is what will ultimately make or break the quarter’s EPS outcome.

Guidance tone is the second critical driver. Any commentary that delineates the cadence of titles across the next two quarters, expected premium format penetration, and operating expense run-rate will shape how the market extrapolates the fourth-quarter print into 2026 expectations. Explicit detail on capital allocation—such as maintenance and growth capex for auditorium upgrades and premium formats—adds context to free cash flow seasonality and return on invested capital. Investors will also pay attention to balance sheet and interest expense color given the sensitivity of net income to financing costs; even small changes here can influence the translation from EBIT to EPS.

Finally, segment mix and geographic contributions may influence narrative around margin durability. While segment-level year-over-year figures were not provided, the last reported mix—50.11% admissions, 39.27% concessions, 10.62% other—offers a baseline; any shift that enlarges concessions’ share would usually be perceived as supportive for gross margin percentage. Conversely, an overreliance on a narrow set of titles could increase weekly volatility and strain scheduling efficiency, potentially weighing on EBIT. Against that backdrop, the street’s year-over-year revenue growth expectation coupled with a contracting EBIT profile defines the crux of the setup: if concessions and cost discipline overdeliver, the quarter could bridge closer to prior-year operating margins and drive a more constructive reaction in the stock.

Analyst Opinions

Within the period from January 1, 2026 to February 11, 2026, collected views skew decisively positive, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 3:0 among identified rating actions and updates. Barrington Research reiterated a Buy rating with a $36.00 price target, signaling confidence in the earnings path and valuation framework into 2026. Roth MKM maintained a Buy rating and set a $34.00 price target, corroborating a constructive stance that prioritizes earnings leverage and in-theater monetization as the key drivers. MoffettNathanson upgraded Cinemark to Buy from Neutral and lifted its price target to $30.00, reinforcing the shift toward a more favorable risk-reward profile ahead of the print.

The convergence of these Buy-rated views suggests institutions are focused on near-term earnings stability and the potential for incremental upside if margin conversion outperforms conservative expectations. The projected 1.74% year-over-year revenue growth, paired with the forecast 13.81% decline in EBIT, frames a cautious market stance on operating leverage; bullish analysts appear to be underwriting the possibility that concessions strength, premium format mix, and expense discipline may narrow that gap. The $36.00 and $34.00 price targets from Barrington and Roth MKM, respectively, imply scope for appreciation if execution on attendance, pricing, and per-guest spending holds, while the MoffettNathanson upgrade adds incremental confirmation that the setup has improved relative to prior positioning.

Importantly, these positive opinions align with a narrative that emphasizes controllable levers—labor scheduling, cost of goods for concessions, and premium mix—over macro factors. If EPS lands close to the $0.32 consensus and management articulates a steady margin trajectory, the shares could benefit from multiple support as sentiment normalizes around a stable earnings base. Conversely, the bullish cohort acknowledges that operating deleverage embedded in forecasts raises the bar for cost control; should Cinemark demonstrate tighter expense management and consistent concessions performance, upside to EBIT and EPS becomes more credible.

In sum, the majority institutional view anticipates stable to modestly improving fundamentals into early 2026, with concessions-driven margin resilience and disciplined operations acting as the primary catalysts. The combination of conservative EBIT assumptions, balanced revenue expectations, and supportive ratings posture establishes a setup where execution on mix and costs can catalyze a favorable post-earnings reaction, validating the Buy-leaning consensus.