Abstract

Nokia Oyj will report its second-quarter results on July 23, 2026 Pre-Mkt, with market tracking pointing to revenue of 5.85 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS of $0.07, while investors concentrate on Network Infrastructure momentum and the pace of optical and IP order conversion.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Nokia Oyj’s internal-tracking forecast indicates revenue of 5.85 billion US dollars, up 6.95% year over year, EBIT of 489.32 million US dollars, up 11.05% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.07, up 7.37% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not available; the market focus is on sequential revenue recovery, earnings leverage through operating efficiency, and the scale benefits from higher-mix systems shipments flowing through to EBIT and EPS.

In the main business, recent disclosures keep attention on shipment cadence and pricing discipline in Mobile Infrastructure, with spillover effects to margins, while Network Infrastructure’s order conversion and optical systems deliveries are expected to support top-line stability. The most promising segment is Network Infrastructure, which generated 1.83 billion US dollars last quarter and is guided by management commentaries and analyst updates toward a 12%–14% growth range for 2026, reflecting stronger demand in optical and IP networks and higher activity from AI and cloud customers.

Last Quarter Review

Nokia Oyj posted revenue of 5.27 billion US dollars in the prior quarter, up 13.98% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 45.50%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 1.91%, and adjusted EPS of $0.06, up 84.38% year over year. Quarter on quarter, net profit contracted by 84.13%, underscoring sensitivity to mix and delivery timing even as yearly comparisons improved across profitability metrics.

A key financial highlight was profitability outperformance versus the period a year earlier: EBIT reached 328.86 million US dollars, up 100.30% year over year, while adjusted EPS exceeded prior internal estimates even though revenue undershot forecasts by 416.69 million US dollars. In the main business breakdown, Mobile Infrastructure contributed 2.50 billion US dollars (approximately 55% of the group), Network Infrastructure delivered 1.83 billion US dollars (around 41%), and Group-level businesses added 173.00 million US dollars, with a minor negative from Group common functions and other of -1.00 million US dollars; overall revenue rose 13.98% year over year against this mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Mobile Infrastructure

Mobile Infrastructure remains the biggest revenue contributor at 2.50 billion US dollars last quarter, positioning it as a primary determinant of quarterly revenue and margin variability. The core near-term swing factors are shipment timing in radio and baseband deliveries and the degree of pricing discipline against contract renewals and competitive bids. Given the forecast group revenue growth of 6.95% year over year and EBIT growth of 11.05% year over year, incremental throughput in Mobile Infrastructure could yield positive operating leverage, supporting EBIT above revenue growth if mix and execution favor higher-value configurations.

Within the quarter, watch for order intake color and commentary on deployment progress to evaluate the breadth of demand across regions and the cadence for the second half. Margins in Mobile Infrastructure are sensitive to volume scale, currency, and discounting; stable deployment pace combined with effective cost control should help preserve the 45.50% gross margin baseline posted last quarter at the group level, even if product mix tilts toward capacity expansions rather than greenfield projects. If price competition intensifies or if certain large rollouts slip, gross margin could face pressure, but disciplined product and services mix management can cushion the downside and help protect EBIT.

Execution details matter: a smooth conversion of backlog into shipments, maintaining favorable logistics and supplier terms, and tight working capital control would support the forecast EPS of $0.07. Conversely, shipment phasing that skews later in the quarter or mix that leans toward lower-margin hardware could compress profitability. The balance of these factors is likely to be reflected in EBIT’s pace, which is projected to grow faster than revenue this quarter, indicating the potential for operating leverage if delivery schedules remain on track.

Most promising segment: Network Infrastructure and optical

Network Infrastructure delivered 1.83 billion US dollars last quarter and is widely viewed as the most promising engine for near-term growth, anchored by updates that the unit’s 2026 growth outlook has been raised to the 12%–14% range. Analyst and company commentaries link this stronger view to optical systems and IP networks, with an expected uplift from AI and cloud customer demand that management now sees expanding at a 27% pace for 2025–2028 in the addressable target market. These signals suggest that order momentum and project activations in data center interconnect, long-haul, and metro optical systems can sustain an above-company-average growth path for this business line.

In the current quarter, investors will watch for evidence of backlog conversion in optical, delivery of recently won IP routing projects, and any updates on lead times and supply interoperability that can accelerate revenue recognition. The translation of higher orders into shipped systems, combined with software and services attachment, should support both top-line and margin dynamics. Given the company’s group-level forecasts for revenue and EBIT growth this quarter, continued strength in Network Infrastructure could be a key contributor to EBIT expansion, particularly if higher-value optical platforms and routing solutions form a larger part of the sales mix.

Another area to monitor is capital intensity and investment prioritization within Network Infrastructure. After signals that the company is increasing investment to capture optical growth, investors will focus on capex-to-revenue efficiency and the timing of capacity deployments that can unlock near-term shipment potential without materially diluting cash returns. If execution stays aligned with demand, the segment’s contribution can offset variability in Mobile Infrastructure and help stabilize group earnings, strengthening confidence in the projected adjusted EPS trajectory.

Quarterly stock price drivers and key swing factors

The most immediate stock price driver is the magnitude and composition of the revenue outcome versus the 5.85 billion US dollars projection, and whether EBIT scales in line with its 11.05% year-over-year forecast to 489.32 million US dollars. A revenue beat led by Network Infrastructure and optical systems, coupled with disciplined cost control, would likely translate to the projected $0.07 EPS or better, while a miss concentrated in lower-margin hardware could cap EPS even if top-line holds near expectations. Segment mix will therefore be as consequential as the headline revenue figure.

Management’s capital allocation and full-year profitability guardrails also matter for sentiment into the second half. The company has communicated a full-year comparable operating profit target range of 2.0–2.5 billion euros and higher 2026 capital expenditures of 900 million–1.0 billion euros, with a comparable income tax rate of 26%–27%; quarterly commentary that keeps these ranges intact can help anchor expectations even if quarterly shipments are uneven. Conversely, any recalibration of capital spending or a change to the profitability range could prompt reassessment of second-half earnings quality and cash conversion assumptions.

Finally, investors are attentive to order trends and backlog visibility in optical and IP, as highlighted by recent updates. Confirmation that the demand environment remains firm for those systems and that order-to-revenue conversion is tracking to plan would likely be taken positively. The degree to which Mobile Infrastructure deliveries firm up through the remainder of 2026 will determine whether the company can sustain EBIT growth above revenue growth, as implied by this quarter’s forecast, reinforcing the durability of the improving EPS trend.

Analyst Opinions

Across prominent institutions tracked in the period from January 1, 2026 to July 16, 2026, published stances on Nokia Oyj skew bullish. Among notable notes, there are five bullish views (Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Kepler Capital, Northland Securities, and Bank of America Securities), two bearish views (Barclays published two Sell reiterations at different dates), and one neutral view (Goldman Sachs Hold). By count, bullish opinions represent the majority, outnumbering bearish and neutral views combined, and the reasoning behind the bullish camp concentrates on accelerating momentum in optical and IP networks, improving demand from AI and cloud customers, and a clearer path to earnings leverage as mix improves.

Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy rating with a €14.00 price target, framing the upside around multi-quarter execution in Network Infrastructure and the benefits of higher-value systems that support margin resilience as deliveries scale. Their stance aligns with evidence that revenue growth in the current quarter is projected at 6.95% year over year while EBIT is guided higher by 11.05% year over year, indicating potential operating leverage. The call emphasizes that, if order conversion in optical and routing remains steady, quarterly earnings can track or exceed the projected $0.07 EPS, especially if Mobile Infrastructure’s delivery cadence remains orderly.

Bank of America Securities reiterated a Buy rating with an €11 price target, explicitly citing data center-driven growth and optical network strength as the underpinning for their positive view. They point to raised growth expectations in the addressable market for AI and cloud customers at 27% for 2025–2028 and to a more constructive outlook for the optical and IP portfolio. In their framework, successful scaling in these platforms can offset lumpiness tied to mobile systems shipments and elevate EBIT growth above the pace of revenue growth, consistent with the quarter’s 11.05% year-over-year EBIT forecast versus the 6.95% revenue growth forecast.

Jefferies reiterated a Buy with a €10.70 target, and Kepler Capital followed with a Buy and an €8.20 target, both centering their arguments on an improved growth outlook for Network Infrastructure. They highlight that management and analyst updates now point to 12%–14% growth for the unit in 2026, a step-up from earlier expectations centered around mid-to-high single digits. Their interpretation is that capacity investments in optical can accelerate deliveries to higher-demand customers, providing a clearer line of sight to second-half revenue and earnings cadence. This thesis dovetails with the quarter’s internal projections, where EBIT growth outpaces revenue growth, implying mix and scale benefits that can carry into subsequent quarters if execution remains consistent.

Northland Securities added to the bullish cluster, reiterating a Buy with a 13.00 US dollars target, which connects well with the current quarter’s forecast of $0.07 EPS and 489.32 million US dollars in EBIT. Their emphasis rests on visibility into order flow and the potential of higher-value network solutions to enhance margins as shipment volumes increase, providing a path for sustained EPS improvement from the prior quarter’s $0.06. The firm views the raised full-year growth outlook in optical and IP networks as a leading indicator for next-quarter and second-half performance.

While Barclays delivered two Sell reiterations in the period, including targets of €5.20 and €8.50, the majority of institutional commentary leans toward the positive scenario that Network Infrastructure’s stronger trajectory can counterbalance mobile delivery variability. Goldman Sachs maintained a Hold at €8.90, a neutral position that recognizes improved momentum but also balances it against execution requirements. In aggregate, the dominant view remains constructive: the combination of a 6.95% revenue growth forecast, 11.05% EBIT growth forecast, and a $0.07 EPS projection for the quarter sits alongside clearer segment-level growth signals in optical and IP, leading bullish analysts to expect stability in near-term earnings and potential upside if segment mix remains favorable.

The prevailing bullish interpretation thus centers on three pillars. First, a raised 2026 growth outlook for Network Infrastructure at 12%–14% provides a tangible anchor for the sales trajectory in a segment that produced 1.83 billion US dollars last quarter. Second, optical and IP order-to-revenue conversion appears to be strengthening, supported by the anticipated demand from AI and cloud customers, which management estimates to expand at a 27% rate over 2025–2028 in the relevant target market. Third, the forecast spread between revenue growth and EBIT growth for the current quarter implies operating leverage that can translate into EPS resilience or modest upside, provided Mobile Infrastructure deliveries proceed on schedule and pricing discipline holds.

In this framework, the market’s attention into July 23, 2026 Pre-Mkt will be on whether the headline 5.85 billion US dollars revenue projection is met or exceeded and whether EBIT lands near the 489.32 million US dollars mark in a way that validates the improved mix and cost structure. Confirmation that Network Infrastructure continues to convert its backlog and that optical systems shipments are flowing through as planned would reinforce the majority bullish view. Conversely, if Mobile Infrastructure’s shipment phasing or pricing skews more adverse than anticipated, the upside case would be tempered, but the breadth of bullish analyst coverage suggests confidence that the segment mix can still support the forecasted EPS outcome this quarter.