Abstract

Meituan will release its second-quarter 2026 results on August 28, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, consensus forecasts for revenue, margin and EPS, and how segment dynamics could shape results.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, the company-level forecast indicates revenue of 100.79 billion RMB, implying year-over-year growth of 7.68%, with EBIT estimated at a loss of 0.51 billion RMB and EPS at a loss of 0.06; year-over-year growth rates for EBIT and EPS are forecast at -106.24% and -103.88%, respectively. Management’s outlook continues to emphasize Core Local Commerce resilience and measured investment in New Initiatives, with improving unit economics in select services and ongoing efficiency gains in logistics. The most promising segment remains Core Local Commerce, anchored by on-demand delivery and in-store services, with last quarter revenue of 64.06 billion RMB and positive year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Meituan reported total revenue of 91.60 billion RMB, a gross profit margin of 28.53%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -6.83 billion RMB and a net profit margin of -7.50%, with adjusted EPS at -0.81 and year-over-year growth of -145.25%. The quarter-on-quarter change in net profit was 54.92%, reflecting sequential improvement from prior investment intensity and cost control. Core Local Commerce contributed 64.06 billion RMB and New Initiatives contributed 26.98 billion RMB; Core Local Commerce remained the primary growth engine, with healthier order frequency and monetization.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Local Commerce

Core Local Commerce is expected to remain the foundation of quarterly revenue and cash generation. With last quarter revenue of 64.06 billion RMB, the business benefits from resilient demand in on-demand delivery and in-store services, aided by stable merchant adoption and consumer engagement. Key watch items are order growth versus average order value, and the balance between promotions and take-rate stability that influence gross margin. Execution on logistics routing, delivery density and merchant tool adoption should support margin stability around recent levels, even if macro consumption remains modest.

New Initiatives

New Initiatives, which generated 26.98 billion RMB last quarter, continue to be a drag on profitability but are central to long-term user and merchant ecosystem expansion. The forecast EBIT loss of 0.51 billion RMB and negative EPS guidance for the quarter imply continued investment, though the magnitude of losses is expected to narrow versus historically deeper losses. The trajectory depends on cohort retention, city-level breakeven progress and SKU expansion within on-demand retail. If user frequency and fulfillment efficiency continue to improve, New Initiatives could contribute a smaller drag to consolidated EBIT while preserving revenue growth.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investor focus is likely to center on the interplay between revenue growth and margin resilience. A revenue print near 100.79 billion RMB with evidence that gross profit margin can hold near the high-20s would be received constructively, especially if Core Local Commerce monetization remains stable. Conversely, any indication of sharper promotional spending or rising courier costs that pressure net margin beyond the last quarter’s -7.50% could weigh on sentiment. Management color on unit economics for newer categories and progress toward breakeven in selected city clusters will be a key determinant of post-print reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary tilts cautious, with more neutral-to-underweight stances than outright bullish calls over the past six months. Analysts highlight that while revenue growth is expected to improve to 7.68% year over year in the quarter, the forecasted EPS loss and a projected EBIT loss indicate ongoing profitability pressure from investments in New Initiatives. Several firms emphasize the need for clear visibility into the pace of loss reduction and the durability of margin improvement in Core Local Commerce. The consensus majority expects modest top-line growth with constrained earnings, and the prevailing view is that execution on cost efficiencies and disciplined investment will be required to shift the earnings trajectory toward consistent profitability in the second half of the year.