Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. According to recent reports, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations stated on March 12 that a cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire onboard the vessel. On March 11 local time, former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the United States would focus on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing tensions are persistently unsettling global energy markets. Goldman Sachs issued a warning in its latest report, stating that due to expectations of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $93 per barrel under extreme scenarios, potentially surpassing the historical peak seen in 2008.
A cargo ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on March 12. Reports indicate that the incident occurred 35 nautical miles north of Al Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates. All crew members are reported safe, and an investigation into the specifics is underway. This follows a similar incident on March 11, where a vessel was hit by an unidentified object 11 nautical miles north of Oman.
The Strait of Hormuz facilitates approximately one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer shipments. Since the initiation of U.S. and Israeli military actions, shipping traffic through the strait has nearly halted, with hundreds of vessels stranded at anchor. Global oil prices have subsequently climbed to their highest levels since 2022.
Former President Trump stated on March 11 that the U.S. is in a "favorable position" regarding the conflict with Iran and will prioritize the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. He also claimed awareness of the locations of Iran's "secret organizations," which are under close surveillance. Earlier in the week, Trump mentioned in an interview that he was "considering taking control" of the strait. He has repeatedly asserted recently that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escorts if necessary to restore regular transit through this critical waterway. However, informed sources report that since the onset of hostilities with Iran, the U.S. Navy has nearly daily denied requests from the shipping industry for military escorts in the strait, citing unacceptably high risks of attack. Three anonymous shipping industry sources indicated that the Navy continues to hold daily briefings with industry counterparts, maintaining that escort services cannot be provided at this time, with any such support contingent on a reduction in attack risks.
The security challenges in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. Maritime security experts and analysts note that even with an international coalition, ensuring the strait's security remains a formidable challenge due to Iran's capability to deploy sea mines and low-cost attack drones. Adel Bakawan, Director of the European Centre for Middle East and North Africa Studies, commented that "neither France, the U.S., an international coalition, nor any other force can secure the Strait of Hormuz."
Influenced by these developments, international oil prices have strengthened. During Asian trading on March 12, Brent crude futures briefly surpassed $100 per barrel. As of 15:20 Beijing time, WTI crude futures were up 4.58% at $91.23 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 4.81% to $96.41 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs significantly raised its fourth-quarter crude oil price forecast in its latest report, citing expectations that disruptions to crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz will last longer than previously assumed. This revision suggests that if the Middle East situation deteriorates further, oil prices could exceed the record highs of 2008. Analysts including Daan Struyven increased their Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $71 per barrel from $66, and the WTI forecast to $67 from $62.
Goldman Sachs noted that if flows through the strait remain depressed until late March, oil prices will trend upward during this period "until the market is confident that the risk of a long-lasting disruption is low." The bank warned that if flows remain constrained throughout March, daily oil prices could potentially break above 2008's peak levels.
The core rationale for these forecast adjustments is a reassessment of the expected duration of the strait's disruption. Goldman Sachs revised its baseline assumption from a 10-day period with flows reduced to 10% of normal levels to a 21-day period, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery phase.
The report outlined price projections under two stress scenarios: if the disruption lasts 30 days, Q4 Brent crude is projected to average $76 per barrel, with WTI at $72; if extended to 60 days, Brent could jump to an average of $93, with WTI reaching $89. While acknowledging two-way risks for oil prices, Goldman Sachs indicated that the balance of risks is "skewed to the upside." With no clear improvement in flows yet, market expectations regarding the disruption's duration will be a key variable determining short-term price movements. The firm's stance implies that investors should prepare for scenarios involving higher energy prices.