Cxmt Corporation (SH: 688825) dominated market discussions over the weekend, and for good reason. Whether measured by industry standing, operational scale, or international comparisons, it stands as the undisputed leader in the A-share memory chip semiconductor sector. It is the true "dragon" and the rightful "chain master" of the industry chain.

As the saying goes, "He who would wear the crown must bear its weight." The pricing and performance of Cxmt Corporation after its listing will inevitably have a significant impact on the A-share market. Every participant in the A-share market, whether or not they hold winning IPO shares or any stock position at all, will not be able to remain unaffected by Cxmt Corporation.

Regarding the post-IPO pricing, reports and rumors have surfaced about a dollar-denominated perpetual swap contract, "CXMT," tied to Cxmt Corporation's stock price. This contract, traded on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid, has surged from a reference price of $5 to $7. This implies a market capitalization of over 3 trillion yuan, corresponding to an A-share target price for Cxmt Corporation of nearly 50 yuan.

It is important to clarify that the "CXMT" perpetual swap is not a legitimate option traded on a regulated exchange with Cxmt Corporation stock as the underlying asset. It is a gambling contract created by the derivatives firm Trade.xyz on a decentralized exchange. It purely reflects a speculative bet by long and short positions on the dollar value of Cxmt Corporation after its A-share listing. It is neither a legal security nor a legitimate trading vehicle, and its reference value is essentially negligible.

This discussion is not about determining the fair price for Cxmt Corporation, but about the hope that the company will thrive as a cornerstone of A-share hard tech. The speculative contract linked to Cxmt Corporation's price represents both a self-soothing "alternative bet" for overseas capital that cannot buy into the STAR Market, and it highlights international capital's bullish view on the "China storage import substitution" narrative. This is positive for the emotional sentiment at the start of the A-share listing. This article aims to examine this from a different angle.

One of the most classic and robust cognitive biases in behavioral economics is the "anchoring effect," proposed by Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1974. It describes how people making decisions over-rely on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor"), even if that information has no logical connection to the decision. Subsequent judgments are then "anchored" around this initial value.

In the case of Cxmt Corporation, the aforementioned speculative contract, which has no legal status, would normally have no reference value. However, precisely during the sensitive period right before Cxmt Corporation's listing, when authoritative analysis is absent, and investor interest in the company's pricing is high but clouded by uncertainty, this contract has entered the public eye. It has attracted the attention of many investors, creating a situation reminiscent of "earthen pots making more noise than thunder."

The degree to which this speculative contract can influence Cxmt Corporation's stock price after listing is hard to gauge, but it seems likely to affect investor sentiment and their willingness to hold the stock. The core of the issue lies in pricing power. As the "true dragon" of A-share hard tech and a pillar of the domestic chip industry's self-sufficiency, control over the pricing power must be firmly in our own hands. It cannot be left to a "jumping clown" of an overseas gambling contract.

The memory of the FTSE China A50 Index Futures serves as a useful parallel. Once known as the "A-share night market barometer," it significantly influenced A-share trends and investor sentiment. For a time, it was even viewed as a "low-cost weapon" for foreign forces to short the A-share market. A key factor was that during a period when domestic financial derivatives were scarce and there was intense focus on foreign views of the Chinese market, the FTSE China A50 Index Futures, with its first-mover advantage, captured the market's attention and gained a degree of influence over A-share pricing. The parallel to the current discussion about Cxmt Corporation's pricing being influenced by an overseas speculative contract is striking.

However, with the development of domestic financial derivatives and the return of confidence in the A-share market after 2024, the A50's value as a leading indicator has declined. It is believed that when Cxmt Corporation begins trading in just over two hours, the true entity will appear, and the minor players will naturally fade away. However, the struggle for influence over capital market pricing power, highlighted by this incident, is worth considering and observing. It is also worth addressing at the policy level to further improve the market's self-regulation.