Mainland China's three major stock indices opened higher collectively on September 22. In early trading, both markets fluctuated at high levels, with AI hardware and AI application sectors taking turns to surge. A sharp pullback hit in the afternoon, pushing all three indices into negative territory sequentially.

Looking at sector performance, the AI application segment maintained its strength throughout the day. Automobiles, home appliances, coal, and media sectors were active, while the real estate sector gained momentum late in the session. Shipping, steel, defense, and petrochemical sectors experienced declines. With the pre-holiday effect emerging, optical communications and CRO sectors weakened in the afternoon.

By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.06% to 3952.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index slipped 0.05% to 13723.74 points, while the ChiNext Index inched up 0.01% to 3399.93 points. According to Wind statistics, across both exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange, 2371 stocks advanced, 3024 declined, and 163 remained flat.

Total trading volume reached 2.1356 trillion yuan, up 104.1 billion yuan from the previous session's 2.0315 trillion yuan. Shanghai's turnover was 1.008 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.2 billion yuan from the prior day's 946.8 billion yuan, while Shenzhen's turnover stood at 1.1276 trillion yuan. Data from Dazhihui VIP showed that 93 stocks across both exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange gained more than 9%, while 12 stocks fell more than 9%.

Semiconductors Surge Early; Shipping Stocks Lead Declines

Semiconductors remained a market hotspot, surging sharply at the market open. Xianjin Dianji (600641), Rockchip (603893), and Beken Corporation (603068) hit the daily limit up. Espressif Systems (688018), Diodes Inc (688123), and Bestechnic (688608) all gained more than 7%. A research report from CSC Financial noted that the current semiconductor cycle is driven by AI demand, with global memory manufacturers achieving record profits and capital expenditure simultaneously, expanding capacity more aggressively than in any previous cycle. Equipment component demand combines both capacity expansion and replacement needs. Given the complex external political environment, export controls have tightened and delivery times keep extending. The third phase of the National Big Fund is directing investments toward semiconductor equipment components and materials, boosting local incubation efforts. Using domestic substitution gaps and monopoly strength as criteria, CSC Financial believes the MFC, blank mask, and electrostatic chuck supply chains offer higher localization growth potential.

Media stocks led gains across both markets, with ZD Tech (000676), Xinhua Winshare (601811), Inner Mongolia Xinhua (603230), Leading Media (603598), China Publishing & Media (601949), Topway Video (002238), and Zhejiang Huamei Holding (000607) all hitting their daily limit up.

Coal stocks opened lower but climbed steadily throughout the day. Dayou Energy (600403) hit the daily limit up, while Yunnan Coal Energy (600792), Zhengzhou Coal Mining (600121), and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry (601001) all gained more than 3%.

Shipping stocks led the declines, dragging down the transportation sector. China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) and China Merchants South China Oil (601975) fell more than 5%, while COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026), YTO Express (600233), Ningbo Ocean Shipping (601022), and Phoenix Shipping (000520) each dropped over 3%.

Steel stocks also underperformed, with Macau Mining (601123) and Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) falling more than 3%, while Benxi Steel Plates (000761), Maanshan Iron & Steel (600808), Yongjin Technology (603995), and Anyang Iron & Steel (600569) each declined over 2%.

The defense sector ranked among the worst performers, with Hangxin Technology (300424), Boyun New Materials (002297), Hongming Electronics (301682), and North Electro-Optic (600184) all falling more than 3%.

Pre-National Day Caution Prevails

Huatai Securities' strategy team commented that after the overseas rate hike landed, short-term uncertainty has somewhat receded, opening a window for a rebound. Technology sectors previously suppressed by overseas liquidity expectations may benefit more. However, the pre-National Day effect tends to make investors cautious, limiting upward momentum, and the team maintains its view of a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Everbright Securities' strategy team released a research report suggesting the market is likely to sustain its current recovery trajectory. On one hand, with the Fed rate hike already delivered, if geopolitical conflicts ease subsequently, international oil prices may continue their downward path, alleviating global inflationary pressures. On the other hand, domestic pro-growth policies are actively gaining momentum, with policy dividends across multiple sectors gradually being released, which should support continued repair of market risk appetite.

Yang Chao, chief strategy analyst at China Galaxy Securities, stated that the cross-holiday risk premium combined with end-of-quarter institutional assessment constraints may keep the market in a range-bound rotation pattern. The influence of overseas interest rates is marginally weakening; geopolitical tail risks and energy inflation impacts continue to surface intermittently; and positive expectations around domestic policies and tech industry trends are gradually accumulating. The key factors determining future market performance are shifting from whether external risks can be partially absorbed to whether these positive factors can form a relay.

Qiu Xiang, chief A-share strategist at CITIC Securities, believes the market has experienced a fairly complete emotional cooling, and recent risk events that have been discussed and recognized by the market have largely been priced in to some degree. The current short-term sentiment cycle position, coupled with third-quarter earnings catalysts, provides fertile ground for active capital to attack new technologies and new themes. Within a limited time window, adopting an offensive strategy based on short-term sentiment cycles requires both earnings catalysts and capital consensus, and the areas featuring these characteristics remain primarily centered around new AI technologies and themes.

Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that the Fed's rate hike will not provide effective support for the market, and the recent rebound primarily stems from the release of geopolitical positive information. Trump currently faces multiple pressures including midterm elections, tariff damage, high inflation, and the US debt crisis, making the geopolitical situation a key bargaining chip. US-Iran negotiations face a new window of opportunity, and close attention should be paid to geopolitical developments in the near term.

A CITIC Securities research report noted that this week's policies have been intensively rolled out around upgrading advanced manufacturing, expanding investment in emerging industries, and broadening consumer spending. The National Advanced Manufacturing Conference has designated next-generation intelligent manufacturing as the main direction, and the "AI plus Manufacturing" special initiative is expected to accelerate the filling of gaps in key areas such as high-end chips, industrial software, and intelligent equipment. Surveys indicate that computing infrastructure construction in the Ulanqab-Zhangjiakou corridor continues to accelerate, with power supply, energy assessment, and land gradually replacing demand as the main constraints on project implementation.