Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that traditional robotic lawn mowers have limited runtime and small coverage area, making them more suitable for European lawns. In contrast, U.S. yards are larger and more complex, with current robotic mower penetration below 6%. Boundary-free technology and other innovations are expected to meet U.S. demand for high-power, wide-coverage, and long-endurance products.

Cost-wise, robotic mowers have significantly lower overall expenses compared to traditional outdoor power equipment (OPE). On the distribution front, major North American retailer Lowe's has partnered with several Chinese robotic mower brands, including Ninebot and Sunseeker, by 2025, reflecting growing U.S. market acceptance.

Key insights from Huaxi Securities:

**Boundary-Free Technology Expands Market Potential** Boundary-free technology greatly enhances user experience, potentially tripling global sales. These mowers use virtual boundaries and smart navigation, improving efficiency by over 80% compared to traditional random-collision models while delivering neater results. Users can also remotely control mowers via mobile apps to create virtual boundary maps.

Robotic mowers primarily replace riding and push mowers. Assuming substitution rates of 15% for riding mowers and 30% for push mowers, potential sales could reach 410,000 and 4.8 million units, respectively—tripling the 2024 estimated sales of 1.3 million units.

**High Margins and Price Declines Expected** Mid-to-high-end RTK+vision robotic mowers cost over CNY 3,000, with navigation/obstacle avoidance and amortization accounting for 60% of costs. Production-side RTK sensor module costs could drop 40% in 2–3 years due to economies of scale and in-house R&D by leading firms. Initial fixed investments may exceed CNY 100 million, but rapid sales growth will boost economies of scale.

Brand-wise, Ninebot's robotics segment reported gross margins of 53% (2023), 56% (H1 2024), and 51% (2024), likely driven by mower sales—5–20 percentage points higher than the ~30% margins of top OPE brands.

**North America Breakthrough Potential** Functionality: Boundary-free models address U.S. needs for power, coverage, and endurance. Cost: Priced at ~$1,000 (vs. $500–1,000 for boundary models), they offer clear savings in labor and installation costs. Channels: Lowe's partnerships with Chinese brands signal rising U.S. adoption.

**Competitive Landscape** Domestic brands like Ninebot, Segway Robotics, Dreame, and Ecovacs led batch shipments in 2021–2022, followed by newcomers like Sunseeker and Kumak Tech. Market players fall into three categories: 1. Traditional garden tool firms (Husqvarna, Positec, TORO, Chervon). 2. Smart robotics entrants (Ecovacs, iRobot, Ninebot, Dreame). 3. Startups (Segway Robotics, Sunseeker).

**Investment Recommendations** Focus on robotic mower players: Ecovacs (603486.SH), Ninebot (689009.SH), Chervon (02285), and Roborock (688169.SH).

**Risks** Downstream demand shortfalls, intensified competition, order delays, raw material cost volatility, shipping disruptions, tech iteration risks, market size miscalculations, and data inaccuracies.