Copper prices exhibited strong upward momentum this week, rising by 3,830 yuan per ton. The price of bright copper in Guangdong, excluding tax, reached 91,000–91,200 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 3,100 yuan per ton. At the beginning of the week, copper prices continued their upward trend, boosting sales sentiment among holders of recycled copper raw materials and encouraging more active shipments. However, downstream scrap-utilizing companies remained cautious toward the persistently rising prices, particularly concerned that uncertainties in overseas geopolitical situations could trigger sharp fluctuations in copper prices. As a result, their willingness to purchase was limited, leading to subdued overall market activity and a "price without market" wait-and-see atmosphere.
By mid-week, as copper prices broke through the 100,000 yuan mark and continued to climb steadily, market sentiment underwent a significant shift. Observing the trend, suppliers increased their sales efforts, while downstream companies quickly shifted their procurement strategy from "wait-and-see" to "chasing the rally." Many expressed concerns that if copper prices continued to rise, it would become difficult to secure sufficient raw materials at affordable costs in the future. This led to a notable increase in purchasing willingness, with daily transactions becoming more active and forming a minor peak in trading for the week.
However, this rally-chasing enthusiasm proved short-lived. When copper prices surged further the following day, exceeding 102,000 yuan, caution over high prices intensified and became the dominant sentiment. Many scrap-utilizing companies viewed the prices as already elevated and considered further buying too risky. Procurement quickly turned conservative, with some even halting purchases to avoid potential losses, causing market activity to cool rapidly and return to a sluggish state.
On the suppliers' side, the sales sentiment index continued to climb to high levels, reflecting ongoing optimism about future price trends. Many believe copper prices still have room to rise and are therefore in no hurry to sell large quantities at current levels. Instead, they are choosing to hold back inventory, anticipating further price increases. This strong reluctance to sell, combined with limited purchasing interest from downstream buyers at high price levels, has resulted in a lack of significant increase in actual market supply. Both supply and demand sides have entered a new phase of stalemate and观望.
From a price spread perspective, the gap between refined and scrap copper rod prices widened in tandem with rising copper prices, remaining at a relatively high level of 1,710 yuan per ton by the weekend. This provides some economic flexibility for recycled copper rod consumption. However, the spread between refined and scrap copper raw materials has been slower to adjust, indicating that tax-inclusive recycled copper prices are adjusting gradually due to cost support from invoice points. This continues to squeeze profit margins for downstream companies.
Looking ahead to next week, although high copper prices are encouraging many recycled copper suppliers to continue selling, downstream scrap-utilizing companies remain constrained by the "reverse invoicing" policy, limiting their ability to restock on a large scale. As a result, inventory levels among recycled copper raw material traders are expected to rise.