J.P. Morgan Forecasts Up to 5% Growth in Macau's February GGR, Names GALAXY ENT as Top Pick

Stock News
02/20

According to an industry report, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first fifteen days of February reached MOP 8.8 billion. This implies a daily average GGR of approximately MOP 587 million for the month. However, the average daily rate declined to MOP 543 million over the past week, compared to MOP 625 million in the first week of February and MOP 730 million in January. The slowdown is attributed to seasonal factors preceding the Lunar New Year holiday and lower win rates in the VIP segment. It is emphasized that pre-holiday performance does not reflect underlying demand, and the data should not be overinterpreted.

Looking ahead to the Lunar New Year period and the remainder of February, GGR is expected to remain volatile over the coming weeks. Projections indicate the average daily GGR for the third and fourth weeks could range between MOP 850 million to MOP 1 billion and MOP 750 million to MOP 800 million, respectively. The current forecast for February's total GGR is growth of 2% to 5% year-on-year, reaching MOP 20.1 billion to MOP 20.7 billion. This would translate to a daily average of MOP 720 million to MOP 740 million. Combined GGR for the first two months of the year is projected to increase by 13% to 14% compared to the same period last year.

Regarding stock selection, investors are advised to focus on individual equities rather than waiting for a broad sector re-rating. GALAXY ENT is listed as the preferred choice with an "Overweight" rating. Other favored stocks, in order of preference, are MGM CHINA, SANDS CHINA LTD, Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, MELCO INT'L DEV, and SJM Holdings.

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