State Street Investment Management indicated that spot gold has recently been consolidating around the support level of $4,000 per ounce, with options market data suggesting the metal may trade within a range in the near term. The firm expects gold prices to hover slightly above $4,000 per ounce during the third quarter, supported by robust physical demand from China and continued gold reserve accumulation by emerging market central banks, potentially breaking out to the $4,500-$5,000 per ounce range by year-end or early 2027.

After recording four consecutive months of negative returns from March to June, spot gold rebounded 1% in July but still posted a year-to-date decline of 6.3%. Meanwhile, capital flows into gold funds are showing signs of gradual stabilization, indicating that investors are entering the market to buy on dips.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its July meeting, though three committee members voted in favor of a rate hike. Studio Financial Holdings, Inc. noted that the precious metals market has largely priced in the Fed's tightening bias. If the Fed maintains its current policy stance for an extended period, this could serve as a positive catalyst for further gold price increases.