An analyst from the International Energy Agency, Gergely Molnar, stated on Thursday that the conflict involving Iran has resulted in a projected loss of approximately 120 billion cubic meters of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply between 2026 and 2030.

Speaking at an LNG summit in Budapest, Molnar indicated that the Middle East conflict is altering the structure of the medium-term natural gas market, with tight market conditions potentially persisting longer than previously anticipated. He noted that the crisis has reduced LNG supplies by about 15%, but a significant increase in new LNG production capacity is expected to offset the lost output from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Attacks linked to Iran have disabled roughly 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. This poses a threat to supplies for Europe and Asia, especially as the summer season—typically used for storage ahead of winter—approaches.

Molnar also mentioned that the European Union's gas storage levels are about 30% below the five-year average. An additional 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas would be required to reach the 90% full storage target.