The conflict between the United States and Iran is escalating along a path of "ship attacks – infrastructure strikes – retaliation against US interests – threats to oil supply." According to reports, US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday the 22nd that from now on, every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant. Later on Wednesday during US stock market hours, Trump further claimed that the US was winning in Iran and did not need the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting cooperation with Venezuela for oil production. The Iranian military issued a strong response to Trump's threat, stating that if the US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking energy and other infrastructure in the region linked to US interests. On the same day, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that the US remains willing to negotiate with Iran, but that US military action will continue if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran emphasized its capability to strike "any target it wishes to hit" and stated it will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become a tool for threatening Iran again. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a more market-impacting warning: either everyone can sell oil, or no one can.
As Trump expands potential strike targets from military facilities further to infrastructure like bridges and power plants, the retaliatory logic of the US-Iran conflict is clearly intensifying. Iran's former Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki also stated that Iran possesses the capability to seize US military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and warned Ukraine against providing drones to Middle Eastern countries and the US, or else Ukrainian military facilities and the residence of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could become "legitimate targets."
Trump Warns Iran Against Firing on Strait of Hormuz Ships, US May Strike Tehran
Trump posted on social media on the 22nd, stating that if Iran fires on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, whether using missiles, rockets, drones, or other weapons, the US will "bomb and destroy a bridge or a power plant." Trump specifically emphasized that the targeted facility could be in or near the capital, Tehran. This statement signifies that previous US threats of strikes against Iranian military targets and related facilities are now being extended to transportation and energy infrastructure. Trump's threat came as US Central Command had just completed a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets, with US military operations against Iran continuing over multiple nights. The US stated that the related military actions aim to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping and control the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz has become the core flashpoint in the current US-Iran conflict. The US insists that Iran cannot restrict international commercial shipping through force, threats, or tolls; Iran emphasizes that security in the Strait of Hormuz must be led by Iran and requires passing ships to coordinate with Iranian authorities.
Iranian Military: Iran Has "Iron Will" to Control the Strait
According to reports citing Iran's Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian military source stated on the 22nd that if the US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran will carry out retaliatory strikes against energy and other infrastructure in the region linked to US interests. The source stated that the US "should have fully realized in the past 10 days that Iran has the capability to strike any target it wants to hit." Iran also stated that regarding exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran possesses an "iron will" and will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become a tool for threatening Iran again. The Iranian military stated that passing ships can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with and accept arrangements from Iranian authorities; otherwise, Iran will "firmly exercise its control over the strait." This means that Trump's threat of "reciprocal retaliation" has been swiftly met with a counter-response from Iran. If the US strikes Iranian bridges and power plants, Iran may target US energy, military logistics, and other related facilities in the Middle East as retaliation. As both sides continuously expand the scope of potential strike targets, there is a risk of the conflict spilling over from Strait of Hormuz shipping security issues to the entire Gulf region's infrastructure network.
Iranian Parliament Speaker: If Iran Cannot Sell Oil, No Other Country Should Either
Compared to the Iranian military's retaliatory threats against US infrastructure, the latest statement from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf directly points the risk of conflict escalation toward global oil supply. According to reports, Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 22nd, stating: "The logic of this war is clear: either everyone can sell oil, or no one can. If we cannot sell oil in this region, other countries should not think of selling either." Ghalibaf also stated that if Iran's security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe. He also stated that the security of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of US military presence in the region and reiterated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state. "Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state" means the signal released by Iran is not merely a short-term military threat. From Iran's statements, even if the current military conflict eventually de-escalates, the shipping rules, military presence, and energy transport landscape of the Strait of Hormuz may undergo long-term changes.
Pompeo: US Still Willing to Negotiate, But Violating Commitments Will Have "Consequences"
In parallel with Trump's tough threats, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated on the 22nd while attending ASEAN-related meetings in the Philippines that the US remains willing to negotiate with Iran, but on the condition that Iran fulfills its commitments. Pompeo warned that if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will continue to take military action. "We are willing to negotiate, but if Iran continues to violate its commitments, there will be consequences," Pompeo said. Pompeo also stated that some countries have expressed interest in participating in protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but have not formally joined related actions due to domestic legislative processes or international organization authorization issues. He stated that the US does not need these countries to participate, but believes their involvement would be "beneficial," especially as some possess special capabilities like mine clearance. Pompeo also emphasized that a significant portion of the oil and energy transported through the Strait of Hormuz ultimately flows to Asia, so Asian countries also have their own interests in maintaining navigation safety. Regarding China, Pompeo stated that China's public opposition to imposing tolls on commercial shipping or restricting freedom of navigation is "important." Pompeo did not directly respond to reports that Russia and other countries might provide targeting information to Iran. Notably, Pompeo also accused Iran of sending Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel to Yemen, stating that Iran's actions are fueling a new round of conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels. This means that, from the US perspective, Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi actions in the Red Sea direction are forming broader regional pressure.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran Capable of Seizing US Military Bases in Gulf Region
Iran's tough statements are not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, Iran's former Foreign Minister and current member of parliament, Manouchehr Mottaki, recently responded to US threats of ground operations against Iran by stating that Iran possesses ground combat capabilities and has the ability to deploy forces to seize US military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Mottaki also stated that populations in these regions might support Iranian forces' actions. If this threat further translates into actual military action, it would mean the risk of US-Iran conflict could escalate from airstrikes, missile, and drone confrontations to direct ground threats against US military bases in the Middle East. Currently, the US maintains a large-scale military presence in the Gulf region, with military facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries constituting an important logistical and command network for US forces in the Middle East. Iran has previously demonstrated its capability to strike US military facilities using missiles and drones on multiple occasions.
Iran Warns Ukraine: Providing Drones Could Make Its Facilities Targets
Mottaki also issued a warning to Ukraine. According to reports, he stated that Ukraine should not continue providing drones to Middle Eastern countries and the US, or else Ukrainian military facilities and the residence of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could become "legitimate targets." This statement further expands the geographical scope of Iran's public threats. From Iran's perspective, any country providing military support to the US and its allies could be included in the range of potential targets. This also reflects that Iran is attempting to deter more countries from directly or indirectly participating in US military actions in the Middle East by broadening the scope of its deterrent. However, Mottaki's statements are public remarks by a former foreign minister and current parliamentarian and do not equate to the Iranian government having made formal military decisions. Currently, the most noteworthy aspect is whether such threats will be further incorporated into Iran's official military and foreign policy.
US-Iran Negotiation Prospects Remain Under Pressure, Strait of Hormuz Becomes Conflict Escalation "Trigger"
As military threats continue to escalate, diplomatic space between the US and Iran is also narrowing. Trump previously stated that Iran is "desperate to meet," but the US is not interested in talks until Iran is ready for "meaningful negotiations." Pompeo on the 22nd continued to emphasize that the US has not closed the door to negotiations, but that US military action will not automatically stop because of Iran's negotiation statements. The problem lies in the clear divergence between the US and Iran's understanding of "preconditions for talks." The US demands that Iran stop threatening navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and accept US-proposed arrangements; Iran believes that US military strikes themselves are the root cause of regional insecurity and insists on having a leading role in the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, any ship attack incident in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the infrastructure strikes threatened by Trump; and any US strike on Iranian bridges, power plants, or other facilities could trigger broader regional retaliation from Iran against US and allied infrastructure. The US-Iran conflict is forming a dangerous escalation cycle: shipping conflicts trigger military strikes, military strikes expand infrastructure targets, and infrastructure strikes may trigger wider regional retaliation.
For energy markets, the continued escalation of risks in the Strait of Hormuz also means global oil and natural gas supply chains will continue to face significant uncertainty. If the strait further evolves from "shipping disruption" to large-scale military confrontation, the impact would far exceed US-Iran bilateral relations and could quickly transmit to global energy prices, inflation expectations, and financial markets.