Gold Market Sees Roller-Coaster Ride: Wen Chengkai's Analysis and Trading Strategy for Today

Market Watcher
07-15

Gold markets endured a heart-stopping 24-hour roller-coaster on Monday! Early Asian trading saw spot gold surge to $3,374 per ounce – a three-week peak – as investors cheered Trump's tariff announcement targeting the EU effective August 1. Bulls reveled in the momentum until a swift reversal unfolded. The EU's measured response, signaling negotiation willingness rather than immediate retaliation, defused market tensions.

Simultaneously, the dollar index vaulted to three-week highs while U.S. Treasury yields hit one-month peaks, dragging gold down to settle at $3,343 – a 0.4% daily loss. Current trading hovers near $3,347 as traders brace for U.S. June CPI data, poised to trigger fresh volatility.

Monday's session revealed fierce tug-of-war dynamics. Bulls capitalized on Friday's momentum with repeated assaults on $3,375 resistance, while bears exploited U.S. trading hours to drive prices down to $3,341 – a $30+ intraday swing. Though bulls maintained slight control, their upward thrust weakened against limited bearish momentum, creating high-altitude stalemate conditions.

This week pivots on two critical factors: Bullish sustainability beyond $3,400 would unlock upward trajectories, while aggressive pullbacks risk triggering top-reversal patterns. Monday's triple rejection at $3,375 underscores formidable resistance, making this level Tuesday's decisive battleground for directional supremacy.

Tuesday's spotlight falls squarely on U.S. trading, with Asian and European sessions expected to stage choppy recoveries before CPI data dictates the ultimate trend. Daily charts suggest unfinished upside potential – at least one more surge likely precedes major corrections. However, today's data could catalyze topping patterns, demanding dual-strategy preparations: Maintain bullish bias while positioning for potential shorts, with $3,400 as critical overhead resistance.

Post-Monday retreats, four-hour charts show prices testing Bollinger midline support near $3,340. Asian-European hours may witness rebound attempts anchored here, with $3,360 serving as pivotal breakout threshold. Surpassing $3,360 could propel prices toward $3,375 resistance; conversely, losing $3,340 support risks $3,310 tests. Trading tactics: Range-bound $3,340-$3,360 maneuvers during Asian-European hours, transitioning to directional bets post-U.S. data release.

Today's trading blueprint favors long positions above $3,340 support. Crucially, a decisive breakdown below this level signals potential termination of the current uptrend.

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