According to Woofun AI, the globally authoritative index compiler MSCI officially finalized new rules on October 15 US time regarding index eligibility determination for "non-operating companies," a structural adjustment directly targeting Bitcoin-holding listed companies represented by Strategy (MSTR.US).

The implementation of the new rules marks a fundamental shift in MSCI's evaluation logic for digital asset treasury companies, no longer relying solely on a one-size-fits-all restriction based on the proportion of digital assets to total assets, but instead turning to a more complex comprehensive assessment of operating assets and financial health.

For Strategy (MSTR.US), this rule change constitutes the largest source of uncertainty regarding its continued inclusion in the MSCI index system. If it fails to pass the new financial ratio tests, the risk of being removed from the index will rise significantly, potentially triggering a chain of market reactions.

The core of the new rules lies in constructing a more refined screening mechanism to replace the previous interim simple restriction targeting companies with digital asset proportions exceeding 50%. This new mechanism will officially take effect during the November index review cycle, and MSCI plans to publish the final list of potentially affected companies on November 11.

Structurally, the new rules first examine a company's operating asset status, then introduce five key financial ratios for in-depth evaluation. According to MSCI's August consultation document, if a company fails the core operating asset screening and is flagged for non-compliance in four of the five financial ratios, it will be deemed ineligible for index inclusion.

Notably, the new rules set buffer mechanisms for the timing of inclusion and removal to reduce drastic fluctuations in index constituents. For companies not yet included in the index, if they fail the tests in any one of the most recent two annual reporting periods, they cannot be newly added to the index; for companies already in the index, they must fail the tests for two consecutive periods before facing removal risk. Additionally, MSCI may adopt the most recent interim financial report as the basis for evaluation, meaning the timeliness and continuity of financial data will become key variables determining a company's fate.

Before the rules were formally implemented, MSCI had conducted simulation tests based on data from May 2026, with results revealing the potential scope of impact. In that simulation, Strategy (MSTR.US), Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake were listed as potential removal candidates. The Block further noted that Ethereum treasury company SharpLink (SBET.US) may also be affected by the new rules. Although the final list still awaits MSCI's official announcement on November 11, the market has already begun pricing in this potential risk.

According to Woofun AI, JPMorgan estimates indicate that if Strategy (MSTR.US) is truly removed from the MSCI index, it could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in passive selling pressure. The massive scale of this amount is sufficient to cause significant impacts on the market liquidity of Bitcoin and related digital assets, especially against the backdrop of already sensitive market sentiment, where any passive reduction signal from large index funds could be amplified, further intensifying price volatility.

Facing the potential threat posed by the new rules, Strategy (MSTR.US) executives have adopted a strong counteroffensive posture, attempting to pressure MSCI on the reputational front. Strategy (MSTR.US) Executive Chairman Saylor and CEO Phong Le previously publicly criticized MSCI's approach as "discriminatory" against digital asset treasury companies. In a letter to MSCI, Strategy (MSTR.US) explicitly stated that while the proposal would not have a material impact on the company's actual business operations, it would "seriously damage MSCI's reputation as a reliable and neutral index provider." Saylor and Phong Le's remarks aimed to elevate this rules dispute to the level of industry fairness and index compilation neutrality, attempting to use public pressure to push MSCI to re-examine its screening criteria. However, MSCI insists on its principle of financial health priority, believing that the financial structure of non-operating companies differs fundamentally from traditional enterprises and that stricter ratio tests are necessary to ensure the quality and stability of index constituents. This ideological conflict has made the pre-implementation game between the two sides increasingly intense, adding more uncertainty to subsequent market trends.

From a broader perspective, the finalization of MSCI's new rules is not merely an individual event targeting a few digital asset treasury companies but an important recalibration by the traditional financial system of the standards for incorporating crypto assets. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, with prices potentially experiencing extreme volatility and investors potentially losing their entire principal—a risk warning that appears particularly weighty in the current market environment. For digital asset treasury companies such as Metaplanet and Strategy (MSTR.US), whether they can pass MSCI's financial ratio tests concerns not only their seat in the index but also their position in global passive fund allocation. As the date for the final list announcement on November 11 approaches, market participants need to closely monitor the financial disclosures of relevant companies and the extent to which MSCI adopts interim financial reports. The development of this event may redefine the survival rules for digital asset treasury companies in traditional financial indices, with far-reaching and complex implications.