Looking ahead to next year, the express delivery industry faces multiple uncertainties regarding demand and policies promoting industry self-discipline against internal competition, but the trend of market share and profit concentration among leading enterprises is clear. The firm recommends ZTO Express-W (02057) and YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SH), whose advantages have continued to expand since the push against internal competition began, and advises monitoring the performance elasticity of STO Express (002468.SZ). J&T Express-W (01519) saw accelerated volume growth in Southeast Asia and new markets in Q4, and the firm is optimistic about the company's sustained leading advantages and industry position. SF Holding (002352.SZ) has undergone thorough adjustments to its management structure and business lines, presenting an opportunity for bottom-fishing investment.

The main views of Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows: Event: Express companies released their December monthly reports. YTO Express's revenue from express products in December was 64.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%; the volume of business completed was 2.884 billion parcels, up 9.04% year-on-year; the single-ticket revenue for express products was 2.25 yuan, a decrease of 1.43% year-on-year. Yunda Holdings' revenue from express services in December was 46.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%; the volume of business completed was 2.148 billion parcels, down 7.37% year-on-year; the single-ticket revenue for express services was 2.15 yuan, an increase of 5.91% year-on-year. STO Express's revenue from express services in December was 58.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.23%; the volume of business completed was 2.501 billion parcels, up 11.09% year-on-year; the single-ticket revenue for express services was 2.33 yuan, an increase of 15.35% year-on-year.

In December, SF Holding's combined revenue from its express logistics business and supply chain & international business was 273.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.41%. Specifically, revenue from the express business reached 203.78 billion yuan, up 3.78% year-on-year; business volume was 1.476 billion parcels, an increase of 9.33% year-on-year; single-ticket revenue reached 13.81 yuan per parcel. Revenue from the supply chain and international business was 69.61 billion yuan, an increase of 2.35% year-on-year.

Affected by multiple factors including express delivery price increases, the timing shift of the New Year sales festival, and e-commerce taxes, the growth rate of express delivery business volume continued to decline in December. According to data from the State Post Bureau, China's express delivery business volume for 2025 reached 199.0 billion parcels; based on this calculation, the growth rate for December was 2.6%, showing a significant decline. The firm attributes this primarily to the combined impact of express delivery price hikes, the shifted timing of the New Year sales festival, and e-commerce taxes. The State Post Bureau forecasts an express delivery volume growth rate of around 8% for 2026.

Due to the timing shift of the New Year sales festival, the firm believes the overall parcel volume growth rate for January-February is expected to maintain steady growth compared to the same period last year. Regarding unit prices, the industry's average unit price in December was 7.94 yuan, an increase of 0.31 yuan month-on-month, as the campaign against internal competition continued to advance, pushing industry prices upward.

Express delivery companies showed divergence in unit prices and volume growth rates. From a month-on-month unit price change perspective: SF Holding (+0.34 yuan) > YTO Express (+0.01 yuan) > Yunda Holdings (-0.01 yuan) > STO Express (-0.08 yuan). Business volume also showed a divergent trend, with year-on-year growth rates as follows: STO Express (+11.1%) > SF Holding (+9.3%) > YTO Express (+9.0%) > Yunda Holdings (-7.4%).

The firm believes that factors such as e-commerce taxes have a greater impact on merchants with low average order values, which in turn indirectly increases the difficulty of customer acquisition for trailing companies, accelerating industry divergence; this trend is expected to continue.

Risk warnings: Industry price competition exceeds expectations; express delivery demand declines; significant changes occur in the industry landscape; risk of rising labor costs.