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Steel Products: Rebar inventory continues to decline, offering short-term price support. Nationwide rebar output increased by 24,700 tons week-on-week to 1.7407 million tons, down 323,800 tons year-on-year. Social inventories decreased by 130,300 tons to 4.7627 million tons, a reduction of 89,400 tons year-on-year. Mill inventories fell by 25,100 tons to 1.593 million tons, down 57,700 tons year-on-year. Rebar apparent demand rose by 41,600 tons to 1.8961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 204,200 tons. Rebar production continues to edge higher, inventories have fallen for the sixth consecutive week, and apparent demand is picking up, indicating a slight improvement in supply-demand data. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, fixed asset investment fell 7.2% year-on-year in the first eight months, with manufacturing investment down 2.3% and infrastructure investment down 4.0%. Real estate development investment dropped 19.9%. Among real estate indicators, construction area under development declined 12.8%, new construction starts fell 24.8%, completed area dropped 23.7%, and sales of new commercial housing decreased 12.1% during January to August. In August 2026, China's crude steel output was 74.61 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year; pig iron output was 67.65 million tons, down 3.5%; and steel product output was 114.75 million tons, down 5.5%. For the first eight months of 2026, cumulative crude steel output was 651.85 million tons, down 3.1%; pig iron was 563.4 million tons, down 3.1%; and steel products were 950.75 million tons, down 1.7%. Investment growth has slowed across the board, with declines widening compared to the January-July period, while crude steel and pig iron production have also fallen significantly, leaving the steel market in a state of weak supply and demand. Recently, terminal demand for rebar has been improving on a month-on-month basis, and inventory performance is markedly better than the same period last year, with total rebar inventories down 147,100 tons year-on-year, significantly relieving high inventory pressure. Rebar prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term.

For hot-rolled coils, weekly production fell by 38,900 tons to 2.8666 million tons, down 398,300 tons year-on-year. Social inventories decreased by 36,500 tons to 3.6215 million tons, up 654,600 tons year-on-year. Mill inventories increased by 8,700 tons to 672,700 tons, down 140,300 tons year-on-year. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand declined by 30,100 tons to 2.8944 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 323,800 tons. Production declined, inventories edged lower, and apparent demand weakened, reflecting modest data performance. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, August auto production was 2.697 million units, down 2.7% year-on-year; cumulative production for January-August was 20.308 million units, down 3.3%. Air conditioner production in August reached 14.952 million units, down 9.2% year-on-year; refrigerators at 10.067 million units, up 8.5%; washing machines at 10.536 million units, up 6.2%; and color TVs at 14.706 million units, down 17.1%. Overall production of automobiles and home appliances remains subdued, and hot-rolled coil demand is lackluster. Inventory pressure for hot-rolled coils remains relatively high, so prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.

Iron Ore: Pig iron output edged up, while mills still need to restock ahead of the holiday. On the supply side, shipments increased this period, with global shipments reaching 35.171 million tons, up 1.588 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments were 19.998 million tons, up 734,000 tons; Brazil's were 8.423 million tons, up 698,000 tons; and non-mainstream shipments were 6.75 million tons, up 156,000 tons. Arrivals continued to rise, with arrivals at 47 ports reaching 28.975 million tons, an increase of 1.979 million tons week-on-week. Both iron ore shipments and arrivals are at high levels for the same period in the past three years, with sustained supply pressure. On the demand side, daily pig iron output among 247 sampled mills increased by 13,400 tons to 237,630 tons, down 33,900 tons year-on-year. The blast furnace operating rate fell 0.8 percentage points to 82.32%, while capacity utilization rose 0.5 percentage points to 89.23%. During the period, two blast furnaces restarted and seven entered maintenance. The scope of losses among mills was unchanged, with the profitability rate holding at 7.79% from the prior week. Pig iron output rose slightly but remains at relatively low levels for recent years. With mill profitability still at historical lows, pig iron output is expected to decline further. On the inventory side, iron ore inventories at 47 ports stood at 171.3593 million tons, up 1.1271 million tons week-on-week and 27.5425 million tons higher than a year earlier. Vessels at anchor numbered 129, down 12 week-on-week. Imported ore inventories at 247 mills increased by 2.869 million tons to 93.3136 million tons, 219,300 tons above last year's level. Both port and mill iron ore inventories have risen, and some mills still have restocking demand. Overall, global shipments and arrivals have rebounded to high levels for the same period in the past three years, with supply pressure persisting. Demand-side pig iron output increased modestly, but mill profitability remains at historic lows, and further declines in pig iron output are expected. Inventories at both ports and mills are trending upward and remain at elevated levels. The iron ore supply-demand balance remains loose; however, high freight rates and pre-holiday restocking by mills provide some short-term support. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.

Coke and Coking Coal: Coal supply assurance measures were revisited, potentially supporting valuation recovery. For coke, benchmark prices in Tianjin, Lvliang, Tangshan, and Rizhao were unchanged this week, while futures prices declined, with the coke 2701 contract falling 110 yuan per ton. On the supply side, coking coal spot prices have eased recently, while coke spot prices remain elevated. Coke producers have swung from losses to profits, with current spot production profits around 60 yuan per ton. This has improved operating enthusiasm, with some independent coking plants raising furnace loads. Weekly coking plant operating rates picked up, as independent plants increased daily output by 9,900 tons and 247 mills added 800 tons, lifting overall coke production. On the demand side, terminal demand rose slightly, with rebar apparent demand up 41,600 tons to 1.8961 million tons week-on-week. While the blast furnace operating rate among 247 mills eased, capacity utilization rose 0.5%, and pig iron output increased by 13,400 tons per day to 237,630 tons per day, supporting coke demand. On inventories, 230 independent coking plants drew down stocks by 93,200 tons, mill coke inventories fell by 249,800 tons, port coke inventories declined by 100,300 tons, and total coke inventories dropped by 486,300 tons. In summary, falling coking coal spot prices, firm coke spot prices, and improved producer margins around 60 yuan per ton have boosted operating rates, implying a marginal loosening in coke supply. Downstream steel mill profitability is poor, but pig iron output has ticked up and remains at elevated levels, providing rigid demand support for coke. Nonetheless, raw material prices show signs of easing, so coke futures are expected to trend weak with fluctuations in the short term.

For coking coal, low-sulfur primary coking coal prices in Liulin fell 31 yuan per ton this week, while medium-sulfur primary coal in Shanxi held steady. Imported Mongolian coal prices declined, with raw coal down 10 yuan per ton and washed coal down 10 yuan per ton. Coking coal futures for the 2701 contract dropped 98 yuan per ton. On supply, some mines that completed quarterly or annual quotas have halted production, and though operating rates at some mines rose slightly, overall raw coal and washed coal output declined modestly. Output from 523 sampled mines fell by 24,700 tons for raw coal, while washed coal output eased by 400 tons to 661,500 tons per day. Imports saw a modest recovery in cross-border truck flows at China-Mongolia ports. On demand, coke production margins have recovered, with spot profits around 60 yuan per ton, supporting improved operating rates and a gradual recovery in coke supply. On inventories, raw coal stocks at 523 sampled mines fell 1,300 tons, washed coal inventories declined 7,600 tons, independent coking plants added 179,400 tons, mills added 90,000 tons, and port inventories drew down 210,000 tons, bringing total coking coal inventories up by 99,200 tons. In summary, some mines have suspended output after meeting quotas, reducing near-term supply, though authorities have mentioned coal production assurance, implying a modest recovery in domestic output. Meanwhile, expectations of expanded exports from Mongolia persist, and border crossing volumes have increased slightly, keeping coking coal supply loose. With steel mill profitability weak at under 10%, negative feedback pressure on raw materials remains, so coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weak bias in the short term.

Scrap Steel: Supply-demand contradictions are limited, suggesting range-bound trading in the near term. Scrap prices declined across most regions this week, with the national scrap price index falling by 7.2 yuan per ton to 2,174.6 yuan per ton. On supply, daily scrap deliveries to mills increased, with 255 sampled mills receiving 501,000 tons per day, up 17,700 tons week-on-week. Shredder processing enterprises saw higher operating rates, capacity utilization, and output. On demand, scrap consumption rose, with daily consumption at 255 mills up 7,500 tons to 489,100 tons. Among them, 89 short-process mills increased daily consumption by 7,600 tons, while 132 long-process mills reduced consumption by 400 tons. Capacity utilization at 49 electric arc furnaces rose 0.4 percentage points, and at 89 short-process mills rose 1.6 percentage points. On profitability, short-process mill losses narrowed, with Jiangsu valley-power pricing near breakeven at around 30 yuan per ton profit, while flat-power pricing recorded losses of around 90 yuan per ton. On inventories, long-process mill scrap inventories rose by 8.5 tons to 2.57 million tons, and short-process mill inventories increased by 88,000 tons to 1.52 million tons. Overall, terminal demand is improving slightly, with rebar apparent demand rising by 41,600 tons to 1.8961 million tons week-on-week. Mill capacity utilization is climbing, and pig iron output rose by 13,400 tons per day to 237,630 tons per day, increasing blast furnace demand for scrap. Electric arc furnace operating rates have edged up, supporting short-process scrap demand, and valley-power profits have turned positive. Scrap prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.

Ferroalloys: Fundamental drivers are limited, with attention turning to market sentiment changes. For silicon manganese, cost support is weakening and fundamental drivers remain limited. According to Ganglian data, market prices for 6517 silicon manganese in various regions are around 5,600-5,800 yuan per ton, down 50-150 yuan per ton week-on-week. Immediate production costs for silicon manganese also fell slightly this week, down 20-45 yuan per ton, a smaller drop than market prices. Manganese ore port inventories remain relatively high with limited downstream demand, but high arrival costs have discouraged miners from selling at low prices, leaving ore prices down just 0.2-0.4 yuan per ton-degree this week. On supply-demand, despite compressed production margins, operating rates among producers continue to rise, with weekly output reaching 182,800 tons, up 1.99% week-on-week and rising for six consecutive weeks. On demand, steel tender purchases continue, with mainstream tenders priced at 6,050 yuan per ton, though prices in South China and East China have pulled back to 5,900 yuan per ton amid falling futures. Demand from sampled mills rose 0.22% week-on-week to 111,000 tons, marking marginal improvement though absolute levels remain low. On inventories, stocks at 63 sampled silicon manganese enterprises stood at 365,700 tons as of the week of September 18, down 18,300 tons week-on-week but up 165,800 tons year-on-year. Combined warrants and valid advance notices fell by 18,843 lots to 45,147 lots. In summary, cost support has weakened, weekly supply continues to climb, demand has improved only marginally, and inventory pressure has eased, leaving limited fundamental direction. Silicon manganese futures are expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with attention on market sentiment.

For silicon iron, immediate production costs are relatively stable, and fundamental drivers are limited. Ganglian data shows 72-grade silicon iron prices across regions at 5,750-5,800 yuan per ton, down 50-100 yuan per ton week-on-week. On the news front, the National Energy Administration reported on the 18th that the National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, and National Mine Safety Administration jointly issued a notice to accelerate stable coal production and supply assurance through multiple measures. On costs, semi-coke small-particle prices held steady this week, with mainstream prices in Shaanxi at 1,030 yuan per ton, unchanged week-on-week, leaving production costs across major regions broadly stable. On supply-demand, silicon iron output ended a five-week winning streak, falling 5.11% week-on-week to 113,300 tons. Operating rates in Ningxia fell notably by 5.71 percentage points to 39.97%. On demand, steel tender purchases continue, with mainstream tender prices rising 160 yuan per ton to 6,340 yuan per ton. Demand from sampled mills stood at 18,100 tons for the week of September 18, up 0.76% week-on-week, though absolute levels remain low. Magnesium ingot output declined, with daily production down 1.63% to 3,026 tons. On inventories, stocks at 60 sampled silicon iron enterprises rose by 1,250 tons to 82,290 tons, at high levels for recent years. Combined warrants and advance notices increased substantially week-on-week but remain low year-on-year. In summary, immediate production costs are relatively stable, though expectations have seen some volatility. Weekly output declined, demand support is limited, and there is no clear fundamental driver. Silicon iron futures are expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with attention on cost changes and market sentiment.

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