Barclays stated on Friday that the upside risks to its oil price forecast are increasing, with the magnitude depending on how long the "standoff" at the Strait of Hormuz persists.

The bank believes that in scenarios where the current situation extends for one, two, or three months, its base-case forecast of $96 per barrel for Brent crude in 2026 faces upside risks of $2, $7, and $10 per barrel, respectively.

This week, oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, as renewed hostilities reignited investor concerns about a global supply disruption caused by the near-halt of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, prices retreated back below $100 a barrel.

"As is typical, spot prices are likely to lead the way, potentially testing $150 a barrel in a three-month stalemate scenario," Barclays said in a note.

Before the conflict erupted, the Strait of Hormuz was a key transit route for approximately one-fifth of the world's energy supplies.

Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its forecasts for Brent crude at $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 per barrel for 2027.

According to a survey of analysts, the conflict has deepened the projected oil supply deficit for 2026. However, the market is expected to swing into a surplus in 2027 as oil flows from the Gulf region resume, alongside strong U.S. production and weakening market demand.