According to CRIC Real Estate, the overall performance of real estate enterprises continued to bottom out in 2025, with some companies experiencing a significant rebound in their results. Among typical real estate firms, 24% saw a year-on-year increase in cumulative performance, with 12 of these companies achieving growth exceeding 30%. Overall, as homebuyer confidence and expectations are still in a recovery phase, developers need to actively strengthen their internal capabilities and enhance their product offerings.
Recently, key ministries including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have successively held their annual work conferences to outline key tasks for 2026. Based on the ministries' plans, this year's policies will focus on four main directions: continuously expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality industrial development, advancing the establishment of a unified national market, and striving to stabilize the real estate market.
CICC pointed out that on December 30, 2025, the Ministry of Finance issued an "Announcement on Value-Added Tax Policies for Individual Home Sales," and on December 24, Beijing adjusted its home purchase and loan restrictions. Recent policies are expected to help boost market activity, with future focus required on changes in the supply side. Investment opportunities in both property development and diversified sectors warrant attention.
While the fundamental trends in the real estate market remain weak, the policy front has seen continuous, small yet positive developments. CICC believes it is still necessary to closely monitor the interaction between policy and market fundamentals. In the short to medium term, a measured approach is advised for the property development sector, prioritizing absolute return opportunities in core commercial real estate assets and targets with outstanding long-term competitiveness and increasingly reasonable valuations. Should policy measures exceed expectations in pace and intensity, a more proactive stance on property developers could be adopted, focusing on companies with high earnings certainty and favorable operational trends.
Huatai Securities noted that recent policies have been rolling out in succession. The new VAT policy, the spirit of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's meeting, and Beijing's new measures are all consistent with the directive from the Central Economic Work Conference to "stabilize the real estate market." Unclogging the transaction chain sets the stage for market stabilization, and the "quality supply" orientation is expected to reshape the competitive landscape among enterprises. Key recommendations include: 1) Real estate stocks with "good credit, good city presence, and good products"; 2) Developers that rely on operational strength to maintain cash flow viability during market adjustments; 3) Hong Kong-based property companies benefiting from the local market's recovery; and 4) Property management firms that benefit from stable cash flows and offer dividend advantages.
Hong Kong-listed stocks related to the real estate industry chain include: Sunac (01918), CH OVS G OCEANS (00081), Longfor Group (00960), China Vanke (02202), CHINA RES LAND (01109), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), and C&D INTL GROUP (01908).