The last full trading week of November will bring investors two critical earnings reports and the delayed release of September's jobs data, setting the tone for the final weeks of the year. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is set to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, while Walmart (WMT.US) will release its results Thursday morning. These reports will provide fresh insights into the AI trade and the state of the U.S. consumer—factors that have both excited and unsettled investors in recent weeks.

Last week, U.S. stocks struggled to recover from a tech-led selloff on Thursday as the government shutdown ended and investors recalibrated bets on a December rate cut. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% in a volatile week, while the S&P 500 was nearly flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.3%.

With the longest U.S. government shutdown on record finally ending late Wednesday, the question now is the economic cost as investors and Federal Reserve officials receive long-delayed updates on U.S. economic data. On Thursday, the government will begin releasing backlogged reports, starting with September's jobs data originally due on October 3—the first official snapshot of the labor market since September. However, comments from White House officials late last week suggest markets may not get a complete report this month.

Adding to the uncertainty, Fed officials last week struck a more cautious tone on the need for further rate cuts, reducing market expectations of a December cut from near-certainty to a coin toss. Meanwhile, a crypto market rout sent Bitcoin below $95,000 on Friday, nearly erasing its year-to-date gains and dampening sentiment across financial markets.

Beyond NVIDIA and Walmart, the earnings calendar in the coming days will highlight other key retail reports, including Home Depot (HD.US), Target (TGT.US), Lowe’s (LOW.US), Amer Sports (AS.US), and Gap (GAP.US). Economic data releases will remain patchy, with a full return to normal still distant, but S&P Global’s private manufacturing activity data and the University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment index (both due Friday) will be the week’s main highlights.

Major indices closed flat last week, but for many investors, it felt much worse. Thursday’s selloff centered on tech stocks, while Friday saw pressure after reports of widening credit default swap spreads for Oracle, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% this month. After a turbulent week, the indices offered some relief—the Nasdaq ended little changed.

As Keith Lerner, Truist Wealth’s chief investment officer, wrote in a client note Friday: "The bull market should still get the benefit of the doubt." Yet this year’s rally has also created challenges, fostering recent nervousness—particularly in investor sentiment. Just seven months ago, markets plunged after Trump’s "Liberation Day" announcement. Since then, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 40%, the Nasdaq over 50%, with NVIDIA doubling, AMD nearly tripling, and Micron almost quadrupling from their lows. The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback since April’s dip.

"Sentiment is resetting quickly, which should ultimately lay the groundwork for stocks to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry,'" Lerner noted, pointing to the AAII survey showing bearish sentiment at a two-month high. "Pullbacks are never comfortable, but they’re the price of admission for potentially stronger long-term equity returns," he added.

Those long-term returns are driven by earnings, which have held up remarkably this year. With over 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 results, earnings are on track for 13.1% year-over-year growth—marking a fourth straight quarter of double-digit gains if sustained, per FactSet’s John Butters.

"While further weakness may emerge—and for underinvested investors, we’d look to take advantage—ample evidence suggests the tech sector’s long-term growth story remains intact, supported by strong earnings momentum," Lerner said. That thesis faces a key test this week with NVIDIA’s earnings.