Gold's 4150 Level Decides Direction as Crude Oil Navigates Geopolitical Risk

Deep News
1小时前

Spot Gold: On October 6, gold is currently in a phase of weak recovery following high-level consolidation.

In late New York trading on Monday, spot gold closed at $4,142.46 per ounce, forming an M-shaped oscillation during the session, with a high of $4,170.41 and a low of $4,123.44.

In early Asian trading on Tuesday, gold prices traded around $4,138–$4,142, with short-term movement still locked in a tug-of-war within the $4,130–$4,170 range.

At present, gold is not suitable for directly chasing a single direction. The core logic remains pressure from the US dollar and Treasury yields, offset by cooling rate hike expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk providing a floor. Bullish and bearish forces are canceling each other out.

In the short term, gold continues to oscillate within the $4,110–$4,170 range, and a directional breakout will require guidance from Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes.

Against the backdrop of a strong US dollar and Treasury yields, the overall bias is bearish, but central bank buying and geopolitical risk below provide support, making excessive short positions inadvisable.

In terms of trading, range-bound strategies should dominate, with strict control of position sizing and stop-losses, and vigilance against extreme volatility before and after data releases.

Key levels: Resistance: 4,152, 4,190. Support: 4,088, 4,050. Entry points/ranges: Aggressive short at 4,145±5, stop loss 55, target 4,140 and hold if broken. Conservative short at 4,190±5, target 4,140 and hold if broken. Aggressive long at 4,090±5, stop loss 80, conservative long at 4,060±5, target 4,150 and hold if broken. GOLD watershed: $4,150 per ounce. Note: The above views are for reference only. In extreme market conditions, strict risk control is essential.

WTI Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fell notably, with WTI crude closing at $89.43 per barrel, down 1.84%, and Brent crude closing at $100.32 per barrel, down 1.89%.

In early Asian trading today, oil prices continued weak consolidation, with WTI repeatedly testing around $89–$90 and Brent locked in a tug-of-war around the $100–$101 threshold.

At present, crude oil should not be simply chased in one direction. The market remains caught between supply recovery expectations and geopolitical risk premiums.

The short-term approach is to observe ranges, focusing on whether WTI can reclaim $90 and whether Brent can hold $100.

Today's crude oil has a short-term bearish bias, but support remains below, making it more suitable for range trading combined with news-driven trading.

WTI should be watched around $89–$91, and Brent around $100–$102. If geopolitical news escalates again, oil prices could spike rapidly. If reserve releases and export recovery data continue to strengthen, oil prices may further give back risk premiums.

In terms of trading, position sizing should be controlled to guard against extreme volatility from sudden news.

Key levels: Resistance: 92.0, 94.0. Support: 88.0, 86.0. Entry points/ranges: Aggressive short at 91.3±0.2, stop loss 92.0. Conservative short at 93.4±0.2, target 89.0 and hold if broken. Aggressive long at 88.5±0.2, stop loss 87.5. Conservative long at 86.2±0.2, target 92.0 and hold if broken. WTI watershed: $92.0 per barrel. Note: The above views are for reference only. In extreme market conditions, strict risk control is essential.

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