Aluminum stocks led the gains in Hong Kong trading. At the time of writing, Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (CHALCO) (02600) rose 5.3% to HK$13.32; Nanshan Aluminum International Holding Co., Ltd (02610) rose 2.9% to HK$51.1; and China Hongqiao Group Limited (01378) rose 2.82% to HK$34.98. Concerns over disruptions from reduced overseas supply continue to push aluminum prices higher. Last Friday, overseas aluminum prices hit a new record, with the LME three-month aluminum contract rising 0.8% to $3,021 per ton. New Lake Futures noted that the short-term market remains influenced by fluctuating macro sentiment, with strong speculative activity likely to keep aluminum prices trading at high levels with volatility. Sinolink Securities pointed out that looking ahead to 2026, the benefits of cost reductions are expected to persist. A looming cap on Chinese capacity combined with power constraints will create tight supply-side restrictions, while low inventories and diversified demand could exceed expectations, supporting a continued expansion of high profitability in the primary aluminum sector. Huawen Futures analysis indicates that China's cumulative alumina output from January to November 2025 reached 81.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%. Under cost pressures in the first half of the year, alumina producers experienced concentrated production cuts, but as costs declined and profits recovered, the industry's operating capacity returned to high levels in the second half. Regarding new capacity, substantial amounts of alumina capacity are still scheduled to come online globally in 2026. Domestic new capacity is estimated at approximately 15 million tons, primarily in Guangxi and Hebei provinces, while overseas new capacity is about 7.5 million tons, mainly concentrated in India.