On September 15, the Hong Kong stock market saw southbound capital record a net purchase of HK$881 million. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect registered a net buying of HK$804 million, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect posted a net purchase of HK$76 million. The stocks with the highest net buying from southbound funds were Z.AI (02513), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869). Conversely, the most heavily sold stocks included Tencent (00700), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), and Alibaba-W (09988).

A notable divergence emerged between large-model concept stocks and tech behemoths. Z.AI (02513) and MINIMAX-W (00100) attracted net inflows of HK$717 million and HK$30.36 million, respectively. In contrast, Alibaba-W (09988) and Tencent (00700) faced net outflows of HK$414 million and HK$1 billion, respectively. According to Founder Securities, foundational models retain platform value, but not all model developers can evolve into platforms. The firm highlights that the Chinese market should focus on the true total cost of ownership for domestic accelerators, the structure of overseas token usage, the pace at which APIs replace private deployments, and the feasibility of expanding Coding and Agent capabilities into platform functions. For tech majors, key metrics to monitor include the capacity utilization of AI capital expenditures, revenue growth, and free cash flow returns.

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) drew net buying of HK$574 million. Huatai Securities noted that if the Federal Reserve delivers on market expectations, the pricing of bearish factors could subside, potentially paving the way for a short-term rebound. However, if the Fed hesitates again, given that rate hike expectations are already fully priced in, holding rates steady would itself be an upside surprise. This could amplify uncertainty, push long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and challenge central bank credibility.

CNOOC (00883) saw net purchases of HK$137 million. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to return to normal, which is significantly curbing Middle Eastern crude exports. Risks to Red Sea shipping, Saudi energy infrastructure, and tanker safety remain elevated. With global inventories of diesel and other refined products running low, refiners cannot quickly boost processing capacity. Nanhua Futures energy and chemical analyst Ling Chuanhui pointed out that oil prices still face substantial upside tail risks in the near term.

Xiaomi-W (01810) registered net buying of HK$194 million. CLSA published a report indicating that Xiaomi's Pengcheng model secured 10,000 orders within just four minutes of its launch, with the firm projecting deliveries of approximately 90,000 units in 2026. The company also unveiled the Xiaomi 18 Fold and Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max, further advancing its push into the ultra-high-end segment, prioritizing average selling price and gross margin over shipment volumes. With the rollout of new flagship products, CLSA believes Xiaomi's revenue and profitability will bottom out in the third quarter of 2026 and begin to recover in the fourth quarter.

SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced net outflows of HK$92.07 million and HK$478 million, respectively. UBS reported that global semiconductor sales in July retreated from the previous month's record high, with memory chip sales seeing the most pronounced decline. Citing data from the Semiconductor Industry Association, UBS noted that worldwide chip sales fell 9.8% month-over-month in July, with memory chips dropping 16.3% during the period.

China Gold International (02099) encountered net selling of HK$322 million. UBS believes that even if the Fed raises rates in September, gold prices could retreat temporarily on real interest rates and U.S. dollar movements, but the decline is likely limited and the broader recovery trend is probably intact. Seasonal physical demand should improve, and institutional and official-sector investors seeking to build strategic positions may become more active at lower price levels.

Additionally, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) and Kingboard Holdings (00148) attracted net purchases of HK$194 million and HK$2.68 million, respectively, while Kingboard Laminates (01888) saw net selling of HK$165 million.