Gold Price Consolidates in Narrow Range as Rate Hike Expectations Shift

Deep News
09/08

On September 7, COMEX gold continued its sideways consolidation, settling at $4,452.0 per ounce, down 0.55%. Meanwhile, the domestic SHFE gold night session hovered near the 960-point level, closing at 954.1 yuan per gram, a decline of 0.04%.

On the news front, the US-Canada trade conflict has escalated, with Canada planning to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of American goods starting Tuesday. In response, Trump has threatened to ban sales of Canadian company Bombardier's aircraft in the US market.

Regarding geopolitical developments, Saudi Aramco's oil facilities have come under attack once again, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level since May. On the central bank front, China's gold reserves stood at 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2,386.57 tonnes) at the end of August, an increase of 650,000 ounces (about 20.22 tonnes) month-on-month. This marks the 22nd consecutive month of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China.

CME data indicates that rate hike expectations remain on an upward trajectory. Should the September FOMC meeting indeed deliver a rate hike, it would signal a reversal of the accommodative policy tone that has defined the easing cycle since 2024. However, given the impact on US Treasuries, a rate hike would represent the materialization of expectations for the market. That said, rate hike expectations have been fluctuating, and the September Fed meeting carries considerable uncertainty, which could lead to repeated price swings.

From September 10 to 11, the US will release August PPI and CPI data, which could provide strong guidance for the Fed's policy decision. The market is likely to see increased intraday volatility as it reacts to these economic indicators.

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