According to a research report, the national average pig price was 13.35 yuan/kg on September 12, down 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, hitting a new low for the year. Average weight increased slightly as pig farmers showed strong enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs. Combined with falling temperatures in many regions, pig growth rates accelerated, leading to a slight recovery in average slaughter weight. As of the week of September 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.32kg (up 0.09kg week-on-week).

In the short term, September slaughter volumes for Ganglian/Zhuochuang/Yongyi sample enterprises are expected to increase by 1.29%/4.11%/3.92% month-on-month respectively, increasing supply pressure. Pig prices may continue to face downward pressure, with attention focused on potential support from Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking in late September.

From a long-term perspective, recent policies have repeatedly emphasized production capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient capacity in the industry and push up the long-term pig price center. Low-cost, high-quality pig enterprises will achieve excess returns.

**Pig Farming August Sales Brief: Continued Increase in Slaughter Volume and Weight Reduction**

In August, 18 pig enterprises collectively slaughtered 15.8449 million pigs, up 6.96% month-on-month and 29.85% year-on-year. In terms of average weight, excluding the impact of piglet and breeding pig sales, the calculated average slaughter weight for 5 listed pig enterprises was 120.95 kg, down 0.27% month-on-month.

**This Week's Market: Pig Prices Continue to Decline**

This week, farming operations showed active slaughter, with pig prices under continued pressure. The national average pig price on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, down 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, hitting a new low for the year. Average weight increased slightly as large pig slaughter enthusiasm remained strong on the farming side. Combined with falling temperatures in many regions accelerating pig growth rates, average slaughter weight recovered slightly. As of the week of September 11, pig slaughter average weight was 128.32kg (up 0.09kg week-on-week).

Short-term outlook shows September slaughter volumes for Ganglian/Zhuochuang/Yongyi sample enterprises expected to increase 1.29%/4.11%/3.92% month-on-month respectively, increasing supply pressure. Pig prices may remain under pressure, with attention on potential support from late-month Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking.

Long-term perspective indicates recent policies have repeatedly emphasized production capacity regulation, expected to accelerate industry inefficient capacity elimination and push up long-term pig price center. Low-cost, high-quality pig enterprises will achieve excess returns.

Recommended focus: Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), DEKON AGR (02419), Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ), Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.SH), Shennong Group (605296.SH), among others.

**Beef Cattle Industry: Short-term Price Stabilization After Rise, Medium to Long-term Beef Cattle Supply Still Tight, 2026-2027 Beef Cattle Cycle May Enter Upward Trend**

Domestic beef cattle farming performance was sluggish in 2023-2024, with long-term breeding losses leading to significant capacity elimination. Newborn calves in the first 11 months of 2024 declined by over 8% year-on-year. Cattle prices have rebounded since early 2025, with calf/fattening bull prices at 32.44/25.97 yuan/kg on September 12, flat week-on-week, up 35%/10% cumulatively since the beginning of the year.

Recent domestic beef cattle market stabilization after gains is mainly due to seasonal impacts of mountain cattle. Medium to long-term, breeding cow elimination will gradually transmit to reduced beef cattle slaughter volumes. Cattle prices are expected to reach an inflection point in the second half of 2025, entering an upward cycle in 2026-2027.

**Raw Milk: Milk Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels, Capacity Elimination Expected to Continue**

Since late 2021, raw milk prices have continued declining for nearly four years. As of September 5, 2025, industry raw milk prices fell to 3.03 yuan/kg, down 31% cumulatively from cycle highs. Falling milk prices have caused continuous industry losses, triggering capacity elimination. In February 2025, China's dairy cow inventory declined 5.7% year-on-year.

Currently, dairy farming remains in a loss-making state. Combined with third-quarter silage feed procurement requiring substantial cash investment, this may further deteriorate industry cash flow, with capacity elimination expected to continue. As capacity elimination transmits to supply contraction, raw milk price cycles are expected to stabilize and recover.

The large animal husbandry cycle is beginning. Focus on beef cattle and raw milk price resonance. Attention recommended for YOURAN DAIRY (09858) and China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited (01432).

**Poultry Sector - White Chickens: Price Weakness**

Recent concentrated slaughter of chicken sources in Shandong and Hebei regions increased market supply. Combined with sluggish movement of frozen products at slaughter facilities, live chicken prices declined and chick prices were reduced. On September 12, industry white-feather broiler prices were 7.02 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg week-on-week; industry meat chick prices were 3.25 yuan per bird, down 0.15 yuan per bird week-on-week.

Current overseas avian influenza outbreaks continue spreading. While French breeding stock imports have reopened, US and New Zealand breeding stock imports remain interrupted. White chicken upstream capacity may contract further. Attention should be paid to the persistence of breeding stock import restrictions.

Recommended focus: Yisheng Biopharma (002458.SZ), Sunner Development (002299.SZ), Wellhope Agri-Tech (603609.SH), among others.

**Layer Chickens: Egg Price Rebound, Chick Price Weakness**

Supported by Mid-Autumn Festival stocking, average egg prices from September 8-12 were 7.15 yuan/kg, up 0.62 yuan/kg week-on-week. Layer chicks were 2.6 yuan per bird on September 12, down 0.40 yuan per bird week-on-week.

Current overseas avian influenza outbreaks continue spreading, increasing difficulty for US breeding stock imports. High-quality chick supply gaps may persist, with high-quality chick prices expected to maintain relatively prosperous ranges.

Recommended focus: Xiaoming Agriculture (300967.SZ).

**Agricultural Products: Soybean Meal Continues Fluctuating Trend This Week**

On the futures side, soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 3,079 yuan/ton on September 12, up 13 yuan/ton week-on-week. On the spot side, soybean meal spot prices were 3,060 yuan/ton on September 12, down 24 yuan/ton week-on-week.

The September USDA supply and demand report was released. This report slightly raised 2025/2026 US soybean planting area estimates to 81.1 million acres (up 200,000 acres month-on-month), slightly lowered yield to 53.5 bushels/acre (down 0.1 bushels/acre month-on-month), and ending stock estimates increased slightly to 300 million bushels (up 10 million bushels month-on-month).

China-US talks will resume September 14-17, with both sides discussing US unilateral tariff measures and other economic and trade issues. Attention should be paid to changes in China-US trade policies and US soybean weather conditions.

Recommended focus: Soybean Meal ETF.

**Risk Warning:** Risks from animal disease outbreaks, commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, etc.