XWPharma, an eight-year-old biotech firm, is racing toward a Hong Kong IPO after completing its Series D pre-IPO financing in November 2024 at a valuation of ¥4.9 billion—a 25-fold increase from its ¥200 million post-pre-A round valuation. The company filed for a mainboard listing in September 2025, though volatile market conditions cast doubt on whether it can replicate the debut-day doubling seen with Yinuo Pharma-B.

2025 has been a banner year for biotech IPOs in Hong Kong, with 55 healthcare firms filing—a fivefold jump from 2024’s 12. Of the 23 listed healthcare companies, 17 closed higher on their first trading day. However, recent market weakness has seen post-debut declines, exemplified by WeSheng Pharma-B’s 56.4% drop since listing.

XWPharma’s core asset, the cAMP-biased GLP-1 receptor agonist enoglutide, targets a 2026 launch, banking on "next-gen GLP-1 tech" for valuation. But China’s weight-loss market is crowded, dominated by Novo-Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly, with local players like Innovent and Huadong Pharma carving niches. Meanwhile, semaglutide’s patent cliff looms, threatening price wars as generics enter.

**The cAMP Edge** XWPharma’s differentiation lies in its pioneering cAMP-biased GLP-1 technology, which triggered a bidding war between Pfizer and Novo-Nordisk A/S. Unlike traditional β-arrestin-pathway GLP-1 drugs, cAMP activation avoids receptor internalization, sustaining efficacy. Enoglutide’s Phase III data in *The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology* showed 15.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss (17.6% in women), outperforming semaglutide’s 8.5% at lower doses.

**Pipeline Strategy** 1. **Near-term**: Enoglutide injection (2026 launch) 2. **Mid-term**: Oral cAMP-biased GLP-1 candidates XW004/XW014 3. **Long-term**: Amylin-based therapies (XW015/XW016) and multi-target assets (XW019/XW020)

**Red Ocean Risks** The global obesity drug market, projected to hit $150 billion by 2035, faces intensifying competition. Novo’s CagriSema and Lilly’s retatrutide (24.2% weight loss in Phase II) lead the innovation wave, while nine Chinese firms are advancing semaglutide generics. *Nature* predicts generics could slash prices to 10% of current levels.

**Commercialization Hurdles** With no prior sales or in-house production (relying on CDMOs), XWPharma’s dual-channel strategy (hospital + online) and Korean licensing deal with inno.N remain unproven. Its ¥2.9 billion redeemable liability (from ¥2.2 billion raised) adds pressure—failure to list risks triggering investor redemption clauses.

**Bottom Line** XWPharma’s IPO hinges on cAMP tech’s scarcity and clinical promise, but commercialization gaps and generics loom large. As Hong Kong’s biotech IPO wave tests investor discernment, the market will ultimately weigh its bet on "next-gen" against execution risks.