According to reports, Industrial Securities has released a research note stating that the value of quantum computing lies not in replacing existing computers, but in its ability to address problems that classical computers cannot solve, thereby creating entirely new markets. Quantum computing can be segmented into upstream devices, midstream systems, and downstream applications. The firm suggests focusing on quantum computing system companies that concentrate on core segments of the industry chain. Internationally, it recommends paying attention to companies in the superconducting route, ion trap technology, and neutral quantum bit sectors; domestically, it highlights 本源量子 (Origin Quantum), which is set to be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board.
Key insights from Industrial Securities include:
The Value of Quantum Computing The true value of quantum computing is not in replacing classical computers but is determined by its capability to tackle problems beyond classical computing's reach, opening the door to new markets. Therefore, assessing investment opportunities in this field must prioritize technological strength, particularly the pathway to "fault-tolerant" computing. The industry has currently moved beyond a mere focus on the "vanity metric" of physical quantum bit count, shifting to a quality competition centered on coherence, fidelity, and—most importantly—the ability to construct reliable "logical quantum bits."
Google's Willow Chip: A Transformative Moment for Quantum Computing In December 2024, Google will release its Willow chip, marking a significant breakthrough by experimentally proving the scalability of quantum error correction for the first time. In quantum error correction theory, only when the error rate of physical quantum bits is below a certain "fault tolerance threshold" can adding more physical quantum bits to construct a logical quantum bit effectively reduce the logical error rate. Google has demonstrated that as the scale of encoding expands, the logical error rate decreases exponentially. This achievement addresses a major challenge that the field has faced for nearly three decades, providing a clear, experimentally validated pathway for developing large-scale, reliable fault-tolerant quantum computers, greatly enhancing market confidence in the superconducting technology approach. Google has showcased this technology by completing computations in under five minutes that would take classical computers 1,025 years, reaffirming its "quantum supremacy."
Future Applications of Quantum Computing In the future, quantum computers will work alongside classical computers to form new supercomputing cluster architectures. Quantum computers will focus on solving problems across four core areas: 1) Quantum simulation, capable of simulating molecular behavior with unprecedented accuracy in drug discovery and materials science, ultimately revolutionizing research and development paradigms; 2) Combinatorial optimization, finding optimal solutions among vast possibilities in industries like finance (portfolio optimization) and logistics (route planning); 3) Empowering artificial intelligence by handling complex models and high-dimensional data that are difficult for classical computers, potentially leading to exponential acceleration and performance boosts in machine learning; 4) Algorithm-defined advantages, leveraging algorithms like Shor's to provide deterministic speed advantages in specific fields such as cryptography.
Disparate Technological Pathways and Key Companies The hardware solutions for quantum computing have yet to converge. On one hand, giants like Google and IBM are vigorously advancing the superconducting route, leveraging decisive breakthroughs in quantum error correction and robust engineering capabilities, making this the current path with the highest certainty. In the same space, Rigetti and China's 本源量子 (Origin Quantum) play the role of agile challengers with unique in-house chip manufacturing capabilities. On the other hand, the "quality is king" philosophy has birthed another high-potential pathway; ion trap technology represented by IonQ bets on long-term efficiency advantages thanks to its near-perfect quantum bit fidelity and full connectivity. Additionally, companies like Infleqtion (neutral quantum bits) and D-Wave (quantum annealers) have established unique technological barriers in their respective niches.
Risk Warnings: Technical execution risks, valuation and capital risks, risks of competitive disruption, and risks of R&D progress falling short of expectations.