In the nickel futures market, a significant capital outflow ahead of the CPI data release and amid Federal Reserve leadership changes led to a slight decline in LME nickel overnight, down 0.89%. The latest LME nickel settlement was at $18,945 per tonne, a decrease of $170, with a trading volume of 6,291 lots. Domestically, the overnight Shanghai nickel contract settled at 146,060 yuan per tonne, down 990 yuan, or 0.67%.

LME nickel inventories reported on May 8 were 277,788 tonnes, a decrease of 102 tonnes from the previous day.

Market analysis indicates that Shanghai nickel futures opened higher across the board today. The main June 2606 contract opened at 147,300 yuan per tonne, up 250 yuan from yesterday's close. As of 9:20 AM, the June contract was quoted at 147,280 yuan, up 230 yuan. The market opened strong and maintained high levels. From a macro perspective, the nickel market experienced a sharp reversal between bullish and bearish sentiments within 24 hours. While nickel weakened overnight, it opened higher against the trend today, driven by a rapid shift in market sentiment due to multiple intertwined factors. The previous session's decline was pressured by three main factors: first, the US dollar index remained high with diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, as the high-interest-rate environment weakened the financial appeal of industrial metals; second, nickel prices had accumulated significant gains earlier, leading to substantial profit-taking and a technical correction from concentrated long liquidation; third, the downstream stainless steel sector remains in a destocking phase, with weak purchasing sentiment from enterprises, significantly dragging on nickel pig iron demand. Today's strong opening is attributed to the combined effect of geopolitical risks and sudden positive supply-side developments. On one hand, escalating tensions in the Middle East have sharply increased risks to global shipping lanes, driving up prices of key smelting raw materials and consequently raising nickel production costs. On the other hand, the impending shutdown of major global nickel mines has reignited concerns over medium-to-long-term supply contraction, providing strong upward support for nickel prices.

Current Nickel Supply and Demand: Structural Contradictions Becoming More Pronounced On the supply side, while the rainy season in the Philippines' main producing areas has ended, leading to a gradual recovery in nickel ore shipments, a significant reduction in Indonesia's annual nickel ore export quotas is now certain. Coupled with production cuts at hydrometallurgical projects due to sulfur supply shortages, the core logic of medium-to-long-term supply contraction remains unchanged. On the demand side, traditional stainless steel markets remain weak. However, production schedules in the new energy vehicle sector continue to improve, sustaining robust demand growth for nickel sulfate, whose prices have also strengthened against the trend.

Current Industry Chain Status: Widening Divergence Between Upstream and Downstream The nickel industry chain currently exhibits a pattern of "tight upstream, loose midstream, and divergent downstream." Upstream nickel concentrate processing fees remain at historically low levels, with rising smelting costs forming a solid floor for nickel prices. Midstream refined nickel inventories continue to accumulate, with overall spot market trading activity subdued. Downstream markets show clear divergence, with the nickel sulfate segment performing particularly strongly, while traditional stainless steel markets continue their weak trend.

Macro Outlook and Price Forecast for May 11 Today's focus is on the US April CPI data and the latest developments in US-Iran tensions. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a strong, range-bound fluctuation between 145,000 and 149,000 yuan per tonne. Upward pressure stems from high inventory levels, while downward support comes from supply contraction in Indonesia and growing demand from the new energy sector. Relevant enterprises are advised to make purchases based on demand and closely monitor changes in Indonesia's nickel policies.