On Wednesday, April 15, during early Asian trading, gold once again staged a volatile performance—rushing higher before retreating sharply. After a rapid surge toward $4,870, the metal experienced a steep decline, falling back to around $4,720, forming a classic false breakout pattern. It is currently trading near $4,720.

Following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the United States imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, initially driving a significant rise in market risk aversion. However, the situation shifted quickly, with both sides expected to return to the negotiating table in Islamabad later this week. Statements from former President Trump expressing strong hopes for a peaceful agreement further eased market tensions. On Tuesday, asset classes showed divergent trends: the U.S. dollar and crude oil fell sharply, while gold and silver posted modest gains.

Global central banks are shifting from record-breaking gold accumulation to a phase of selling. This change is largely driven by energy crises and high inflation pressures stemming from U.S.-Iran tensions. Emerging market central banks are selling gold to bolster liquidity, aiming to stabilize local currencies and ease domestic economic pressures. Although this behavior increases short-term volatility in gold prices, it does not undermine gold's strategic role as a long-term reserve asset. Future gold price movements will depend on the pace of geopolitical de-escalation and adjustments in global monetary policy, while structural demand is expected to provide medium- to long-term support.

In international gold markets, Tuesday's session was marked by repeated tests of support, with prices stabilizing above $4,750 before climbing to a high of $4,850. The metal opened higher the following day. Earlier analysis highlighted a narrow trading range of $4,700–$4,800 and a broader range of $4,650–$4,860. With the narrow range now breached, gold has entered the broader range, and a key focus is whether it can break above $4,860. On the daily chart, consecutive positive closes suggest a continuing bullish trend, with resistance near the upper Bollinger Band around $4,950. Even if $4,860 is breached, further upside may be limited. On the 4-hour chart, steady gains have pushed prices above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a directional move, though divergence signals are appearing at current highs. A pullback could see the Bollinger Bands contract again, returning gold to a consolidation pattern, with key support at $4,800.

Current market conditions lack clear directional certainty—while short-term momentum appears bullish, a correction remains possible. Holding above $4,800 would support further gains toward resistances at $4,860 and $4,950. A break below $4,800 could see gold return to a range between $4,750 and $4,700.

In domestic gold markets, prices did not experience a second decline this week. After a modest dip at the open, prices found support at 1,035 and rebounded steadily. As of Tuesday, domestic gold is trading near 1,065. Although opportunities for medium-term positioning were missed this week, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Long positions initiated between 1,015–1,020 have already reached the first target of 1,065, with the next target at 1,100. Short-term traders are advised to take profits where appropriate, while long-term holders should maintain positions patiently. From a structural perspective, a secondary correction remains possible, with key support around 1,040. Medium-term positioning should wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering—avoid chasing rallies.