The influence of crude oil, known as the "king of commodities," is being fully demonstrated. On March 9, international oil prices surged sharply during trading, reaching a high of $119.5 per barrel. Since the escalation of conflicts involving the US and Iran, cumulative gains have reached approximately 60%.

The rapid short-term rise in international oil prices has increased the costs and prices of petrochemical products while disrupting the price relationships between crude oil and other energy products, triggering significant gains across the entire energy market.

Domestic futures and stock markets reacted strongly on the same day. Energy sector commodities such as coking coal and coke futures, along with agricultural futures like palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, all experienced substantial increases. Companies like Wilmar International, whose main business involves oilseed crushing and oil refining, also saw notable stock price movements.

Although the connection between crude oil and these commodities may seem limited, there are tangible industrial substitution relationships at play. For instance, products like plastics, methanol, and urea can use either crude oil or coal as raw materials.

Regarding oils and oilseeds, Bocheng Futures pointed out that the core driver for China's soybean oil market comes from external factors. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, significantly enhancing the appeal of vegetable oils as feedstocks for biodiesel.

However, it is important to note that supply and demand for some oil futures remain relatively balanced. Combined with numerous uncertainties in overseas markets influencing short-term prices, overall market volatility risks require caution.

Can crude oil really affect rapeseed oil? On March 8, Xinhua reported that the Israeli military attacked several fuel storage facilities in Tehran, Iran. Meanwhile, the Kuwait National Petroleum Company announced on March 7 that due to threats to shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz and a shortage of vessels transporting crude and refined oil, it had declared "force majeure" and begun reducing crude output and refining volumes.

As a result, international oil prices experienced an even sharper rally this week. During early trading on March 9, Brent crude futures surged by over 30%, approaching $120 per barrel—a market reaction far exceeding initial responses to the US-Iran conflict escalation.

The sharp short-term movement in oil prices, driven by energy substitution and comparative pricing effects, directly impacted sectors like coal and vegetable oils. By the midday session on March 9, coal and vegetable oil sectors tracked by Wenhuacaiqing had risen by 7.53% and 6.09%, respectively, second only to the petroleum sector, which includes crude oil and fuel oil.

Coal, as a fundamental energy commodity, can serve as a substitute in industrial fuel and chemical feedstocks. For example, ethylene/polyethylene can be produced either from crude oil or via coal-to-olefins (MTO) processes. When rapid oil price increases raise the cost of producing ethylene and similar products, the economic appeal of coal chemical processes becomes significantly stronger.

According to reports from the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, when Brent crude prices exceed $80 per barrel, coal chemical processes enter a highly profitable range with notably enhanced economics.

Additionally, the rapid short-term rise in international oil prices has disrupted established price relationships with other energy sources like coal. Data show that, on a heat-value equivalence basis, oil and coal have a long-term stable price ratio centered around 3.0–3.4. When this balance is broken and the ratio deviates from the center, coal theoretically enters an "undervalued range," attracting more market demand or capital inflows and driving up coal prices.

While the above transmission mechanisms are relatively straightforward, the impact of crude oil on prices of vegetable oils like rapeseed oil may come as a surprise. The key link is biodiesel, for which feedstocks include rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oils—with palm oil being the primary source.

"On Friday, Malaysian palm oil futures surged to a four-month high, posting the largest weekly gain since August, mainly due to escalating Middle East conflicts and soaring international oil prices, which boosted vegetable oil prices including palm oil," noted Bocheng Futures.

Other futures institutions widely agree that geopolitical risks driving up international crude prices have also enhanced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock.

Driven by linkages between domestic and international markets, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil futures in China rose sharply during morning trading. The gains quickly spread to other agricultural products like soybean meal and rapeseed meal, which are essential protein sources for the breeding industry and major components of feed costs.

If oil prices remain high, the conflict in the Persian Gulf could ultimately impact feed costs for China's poultry and livestock sectors through the supply chain.

Risks of imported volatility are surging. Although rising international oil prices have temporarily boosted domestic coal and vegetable oil futures, the source of these increases lies in the Middle East, where uncontrollable factors abound.

Coupled with relatively balanced supply-demand dynamics for some products and China's independent pricing mechanisms, short-term external volatility risks for related commodities are rising rapidly.

For example, palm oil, which saw the most significant gains, faces a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Regarding supply, New Century Futures noted that Malaysia remains in a seasonal production decline phase, but output will gradually recover from lows after late March. Meanwhile, Indonesia's export tax hikes may temporarily curb export enthusiasm, and policies restricting waste exports could further tighten available oil supplies.

Other futures institutions highlighted that recent palm oil arrivals in China have been concentrated, pushing port inventories to historically high levels for the season. With weak downstream demand during the off-season, the market shows a "strong abroad, weak at home" pattern.

Over the medium to long term, supply and demand play a crucial role in commodity trends. If disturbances from Middle East tensions weaken, pricing for vegetable oil futures, led by palm oil, will likely revert to fundamentals.

As for coal products, which also rose, although China's market requires some imports, domestic supply accounts for about 90% of the total, resulting in low external dependence and primarily domestic-driven pricing.

Recent variables influencing coal prices have mainly involved the pace of domestic mine resumptions, inventory drawdowns, and post-holiday demand recovery.

Furthermore, while $100-per-barrel oil has heightened expectations for energy substitution, industrial responses typically lag behind financial markets. Key variables remain to be seen, such as how long high oil prices will persist, whether companies will adopt substitutions, and the scale of any substitution.

In the short term, the price anomalies in these commodities are largely driven by sentiment linked to international oil prices. Medium to long term, numerous uncertainties persist.

After initial bullish sentiment eased and news emerged about the release of emergency petroleum reserves, Brent crude futures narrowed their gains significantly by the afternoon of March 9. As of the latest update, the near-month contract was trading around $108 per barrel, with gains retreating from 30% in the morning to 17%.

Consequently, palm oil and coking coal futures opened limit-up, while gains in coke, rapeseed oil, and soybean meal also narrowed noticeably. Domestic INE crude oil futures and related petrochemical products closed limit-up due to pricing linkages with international markets and more direct industrial connections.