Recently, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan appeared on a program to analyze topics including the U.S. economy, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Regarding U.S. consumer spending, Moynihan noted that they have just received full payment data for July. Overall consumer spending among Bank of America clients rose 5% year-over-year. Looking at June and July data, when dividing the population into three groups—high, middle, and low income, each accounting for one-third—low-income groups saw relatively faster wage growth and an increase in spending levels. Consumer behavior across different income tiers is beginning to converge, which is a very positive sign.

On the purchasing power crisis, Moynihan believes there is a current crisis, largely stemming from the public's subjective perception of insufficient purchasing power. If prices do not return to reasonable levels, this perception will continue to alter consumer behavior. The tension is mainly concentrated in the housing rental sector—rents are still rising, but the pace has slowed; insurance costs are gradually stabilizing; and there are also food and fuel prices. If geopolitical negotiations make progress and oil prices fall, it could eliminate a major market concern. In summary, purchasing power pressure is a real challenge.

Regarding the Iran nuclear deal, Moynihan described the negotiations as a series of twists and turns, with oil prices fluctuating across a wide range, roughly between $60-$70 and $100 per barrel. While the range seems wide, economies have historically endured such oil price shocks. The key lies in market expectations: if the public believes the price increase is temporary, they will anticipate a subsequent decline, adjusting their consumption and investment behavior accordingly. Until a stable agreement is seen, uncertainty will continue to hang over the market.

On the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates, Moynihan stated that his bank's research team predicts inflation will fall to the mid-2% range by late 2027, gradually approaching the Fed's target level. The team forecasts that the Fed will raise interest rates at three separate meetings this year—September, October, and December—a view that is more aggressive than the current mainstream market consensus. Their research team has professional analytical capabilities. The core logic is that the overall labor market remains strong, so the Fed needs to continue managing inflation to ensure it declines steadily.