On Wednesday, May 28, three key points were emphasized.
First, gold was weak and trending downward below 4538. Each attempt by the price to rebound upward was suppressed, creating a precarious and unstable feeling. In such an environment, going long lacks a solid foundation, and the focus shifts to identifying optimal entry points for short positions.
Second, the daily chart showed a sideways consolidation. A crucial detail has been consistently highlighted: the price lingered for an extended period around the 4480 support zone. Repeated testing of this support level without a significant rebound suggests that the probability and potential force of a downward breakdown are increasing.
Third, the strategy of shorting on any breakdown and subsequent bounce was emphasized. This is straightforward: when a key level breaks, one side capitulates, and the other side takes control. At such times, overthinking is unnecessary; simply follow the trend. It was advised to wait for a break below 4480 and then look for opportunities to short below 4510, entering on minor pullbacks. Reviewing the market action, this indeed provided a perfect opportunity to enter, with the short entry at 4496 being precise and timely.
Yesterday, gold broke below 4480 with heavy volume, plunging to the 4400 psychological level. Although there was a slight recovery late in the session, the weak tone remained unchanged. The breakdown of the 4480 support has now turned it into a resistance level. Such "role-reversal resistance" points are often prime targets for bearish attacks. In early trading today, the gold price declined from around 4465 and is currently testing the critical 4400 level. A breach here could trigger follow-through selling, potentially leading to a sharp decline, similar to the breakdown at 4480 yesterday, which could easily spark a cascading sell-off.
The intraday trading view suggests shorting gold below the 4480 role-reversal resistance, using 4480 as a defensive stop-loss. A safe entry reference is near the morning high around 4465. If the market is in a state of extreme weakness, a corrective bounce is unlikely to break above 4465, so one should not expect higher entry levels. Short positions can be considered around 4425 or slightly above, targeting a move below 4400, with further downside potential towards 4350 and 4300. If 4400 is broken, then using 4425 as a new defensive level and shorting on any slight rebound is advisable.