China Post Securities has released a research report reiterating its revenue forecasts for GUOQUAN (02517) for 2026-2028 at RMB 9.752 billion, RMB 11.991 billion, and RMB 13.68 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +24.9%, +23%, and +14.1% respectively. The firm also maintains its net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts for the same period at RMB 585 million, RMB 752 million, and RMB 904 million, corresponding to year-on-year increases of +35.2%, +28.5%, and +20.1%. Earnings per share for the three years are projected to be RMB 0.21, RMB 0.27, and RMB 0.33, with a price-to-earnings ratio based on the current share price of 18x, 14x, and 12x respectively. The "Buy" rating is maintained.
Key points from China Post Securities are as follows: For the first quarter of 2026, revenue is estimated to be between RMB 2.2 billion and RMB 2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% to 37.2%. Core operating profit (adjusted net profit) is estimated between RMB 185 million and RMB 205 million, surging 45.3% to 61% year-on-year.
Growth is being driven by a dual engine of net new store additions and improved performance per store, with new strategies accelerating their implementation. In Q1 2026, the company added a net 192 new stores, bringing the total store count to 11,758, a net increase of 1,637 stores compared to Q1 2025. Specifically, 113 net new stores were added in township markets, raising the total there to 3,123, indicating a continued strengthening of penetration into lower-tier markets. Based on the midpoint of the disclosed data range, average revenue per store is estimated to have achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in the quarter, with the effects of store renovations continuing to materialize. The company has completed the first batch of store renovations, resulting in significant same-store sales improvement, while also expanding its presence in township markets.
The rapid growth in core profit is attributed to increased revenue, optimized operational efficiency, and higher government subsidies. Calculated at the midpoint, the core operating profit margin for Q1 2026 further improved compared to the same period last year. There is significant potential for further improvement in the expense ratio as the company continues to advance its digital mid-platform construction and organizational transformation. The "Individual Soldier + Store Manager Hub" system has taken initial shape. Currently, the management efficiency per sales manager is increasing, while costs related to human resources and branding projects are relatively fixed and can be effectively diluted as scale expands.
Looking ahead to 2026, with the accelerated rollout of the multi-format store strategy, per-store growth is expected to continue. The company is focusing on promoting several new store types: 1) Large Store Renovations: Achieving growth through area expansion and scene upgrades. 2) Unmanned Retail Stores: Renovation of 1,000 stores was completed in 2025, with further progress expected in 2026. 3) Camping Stores: A number of these stores have begun opening, located in outdoor settings like parks and campsites, selling套餐 packages with a higher average customer spend. 4) Exploration of a new "Stir-fry" store format: The first pilot store, operating as an independent directly-owned store, has opened in Zhengzhou. It focuses on high-value, freshly cooked dishes like chopped pepper fish head, utilizing stir-fry robots to reduce chef costs. Once the model is proven successful, it will be opened to franchisees.
Overall, driven by multiple factors including store expansion, improved single-store efficiency, growth in online business, and activation of the membership system, GUOQUAN is positioned to continue its high-quality growth trajectory in 2026, further consolidating its leading position in the "eating at home" scenario.
Risk warnings include food safety risks, intensifying market competition, and fluctuations in raw material prices.