Fidelity International’s macro team projects that global economic growth will stay broadly resilient in the second half of 2026, though momentum may ease slightly following a robust first half, with inflation continuing to pose a key challenge to markets.

The macro team raised the probability of a US reflation scenario to 60% in August, up from the 50% forecast at the end of July.

Fidelity International notes that solid corporate earnings and the sustained artificial intelligence investment boom are providing crucial support for economic expansion. However, persistent large fiscal deficits, supply chain risks, and ongoing inflationary pressures are expected to create a more challenging investment environment for bond markets.

In this context, Fidelity’s multi-asset team is not relying solely on traditional stock-bond allocations. Instead, it maintains a cautious stance on duration risk and seeks returns and diversification through equities, real assets, and selective income opportunities.

The firm adopts a holistic portfolio management approach, actively managing equity, interest rate, and credit risks while flexibly allocating capital to attractive risk-reward opportunities.