Rosenblatt Securities has initiated coverage on SanDisk with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target. The firm contends that as AI models scale up and the data volume for inference tasks continues to climb, NAND flash memory is shifting from a conventional commodity storage product into a critical component of AI infrastructure.
Analyst Kevin Cassidy notes that competition in the NAND market has historically revolved around price, yet within the AI computing environment, customers are increasingly prioritizing storage density, performance, endurance, and supply reliability. This evolution means NAND's value proposition is moving away from pure cost leadership toward fulfilling more critical system-level functions, which could also reduce its historically high level of commoditization.
Rosenblatt believes SanDisk possesses the technological foundation to capitalize on this transformation. Through roughly 25 years of joint development and manufacturing collaboration with Kioxia, SanDisk's BiCS8 and BiCS10 platforms deliver higher storage density even with relatively fewer 3D NAND layers. The firm suggests this architecture could help SanDisk sustain both cost and performance advantages in the enterprise storage market geared toward AI applications.
Beyond technological upgrades, SanDisk's business model is also undergoing change. The company has entered into new business agreements with eight major NAND customers, with these deals potentially covering about 65% of production for fiscal 2028. Rosenblatt believes this arrangement will boost visibility into future demand and orders while mitigating the cyclical risks that have historically plagued the NAND industry due to supply-demand fluctuations.
Reflecting these shifts, SanDisk management has previously guided toward mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2028 through 2030, with a non-GAAP gross margin target of approximately 80% and an adjusted free cash flow margin of roughly 50%. Rosenblatt projects SanDisk's non-GAAP earnings per share for fiscal 2030 at about $300. The $2,400 price target is based on approximately 10 times the firm's fiscal 2028 earnings forecast.
In the firm's view, this valuation multiple remains relatively conservative given the current growth outlook, while also factoring in a discount for execution risk and the possibility that NAND could revert to a strongly cyclical, commoditized pricing environment. Overall, Rosenblatt's core thesis is that AI is reshaping NAND's pricing logic and industry profile, positioning SanDisk to benefit simultaneously from rising enterprise AI storage demand, technology platform upgrades, and more stable long-term customer agreements.