According to recent reports, Zheshang Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research note indicating that based on information from logistics industry sources, some grain-producing regions have seen courier pricing stabilization under local postal authorities' guidance amid the anti-involution policy framework. As the off-season concludes and the September peak season approaches, prices are expected to stabilize and recover across a broader scope, potentially alleviating operational pressure on franchise partners and enabling phased recovery in courier industry performance and sector sentiment. Additionally, STO Express's recent acquisition of Danniao has initiated resource integration within the courier industry under the national anti-involution framework. From a medium to long-term perspective, the National Postal Administration's encouragement of courier company mergers and acquisitions should lead to healthier industry structure, optimized competitive ecosystem, and potentially create sector-wide investment opportunities.

Key points from Zheshang Securities:

Event Context: On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized addressing "low-price disorderly competition among enterprises." On July 8, 2025, the National Postal Administration Party Group convened a meeting stressing the need to strengthen industry regulation according to "five unifications and one opening" requirements, improve market system rules in the postal and courier sector, and clearly oppose "involution-style" competition while addressing terminal service quality issues through legal and regulatory measures.

Short-term Price Stabilization: The industry has maintained double-digit parcel volume growth since 2025, with expectations for 15% industry growth this year. However, intense price competition has emerged due to leading companies' strong market share ambitions, resulting in declining performance for franchise courier companies in Q1 2025. Some courier companies are expected to continue this downward trend in Q2 2025, with franchise partners facing sustained operational pressure.

Under the anti-involution policy framework and local postal authorities' guidance, courier pricing in some grain-producing regions is expected to recover. Recent reports indicate that courier prices have stabilized in certain grain-producing areas under local postal authorities' leadership within the anti-involution context. As the off-season ends and the September peak season arrives, broader price stabilization and recovery are anticipated, potentially improving franchise partner operations and enabling phased recovery in courier performance and sector sentiment.

According to calculations, assuming a 0.1 yuan price increase in courier services would impact listed companies by 0.05 yuan (with listed companies and franchise partners each benefiting 50%), thereby increasing net profit per parcel by 0.0375 yuan attributable to shareholders. The price elasticity for ZTO EXPRESS-W, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and STO Express would be 13%, 25%, 47%, and 82% respectively for a 0.1 yuan price increase.

Long-term Competitive Ecosystem Optimization: On July 25, STO Express announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Danniao Logistics for 362 million yuan in cash. Post-integration, STO Express will establish a dual business matrix of "economy courier + premium courier," capturing opportunities in emerging scenarios such as regional distribution and instant retail while optimizing product structure to build differentiated advantages. STO Express noted that the National Postal Administration has consistently encouraged courier companies to pursue mergers and acquisitions in recent years, promoting strong alliances and core resource integration among enterprises. Under this guidance, industry integration activities have become frequent, with relevant cases playing important roles in promoting healthy development of the industry and market participants.

The firm believes STO Express's acquisition of Danniao marks the beginning of resource integration within the courier industry under the national anti-involution framework. From a medium to long-term perspective, the National Postal Administration's encouragement of courier company mergers and acquisitions should lead to healthier industry structure, optimized competitive ecosystem, and potential sector-wide investment opportunities.

Investment Recommendations: Under the anti-involution framework, while the overall courier sector experienced significant operational pressure and year-over-year performance decline in H1 2025, courier company performance is expected to recover amid short-term price stabilization and long-term competitive ecosystem optimization. The firm continues to recommend J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) for its sustained outperformance in Southeast Asian parcel volume growth combined with expected domestic market performance recovery from anti-involution price recovery; STO Express (002468.SZ) for high performance elasticity; YTO Express (600233.SH)/ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) as industry leaders with clear market share targets; and Yunda Express (002120.SZ).

Risk Factors: Economic downturn risks, industry growth below expectations, deteriorating courier price competition.