On March 10, the extreme volatility in the current crude oil market is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical premiums and macro-prudential expectations. Despite spot crude oil prices climbing to their highest levels since 2022 due to military conflicts that erupted at the end of last month, the stock performance of the world's top oil giants has remained surprisingly subdued. This divergence, where oil prices surge while stock prices stagnate, is essentially the capital market sending a strong warning signal—indicating that the current spike in energy prices is driven more by panic over short-term supply disruptions than by a fundamental reshaping of long-term supply and demand dynamics.

From a specific market performance perspective, the correlation between crude oil futures and related equity assets is weakening. Real-time market monitoring indicates that since the initiation of related actions on February 28, cumulative gains in crude oil futures have exceeded 40%, whereas global energy ETFs have recorded only a modest increase of approximately 2%. The Brent front-month contract currently exhibits an extreme backwardation structure of $36 per barrel compared to later-dated contracts. While this reflects extreme tightness in the spot market, it also indirectly confirms a market consensus anticipating a sharp future price correction. Traders appear to have learned from the 2008 lesson, when oil prices soared from $100 to $147, yet oil stocks showed almost no movement, followed by a subsequent price collapse.

Against this backdrop, subtle nuances in fund flows reveal investors' pursuit of safety margins. Compared to global enterprises such as Shell or ExxonMobil, producers like Diamondback Energy, which focus deeply on domestic US basins, are instead receiving more favor. Their stock prices have recorded gains of about 7% since the previous Monday. Industry fund flow analysis suggests this phenomenon stems from investors viewing North American energy infrastructure as having inherent safe-haven attributes, effectively insulating it from geopolitical risks. The current oil price exuberance lacks solid support from asset valuations. As the impulse effects from geopolitical frictions subside, a return of oil prices to more rational levels appears an inevitable trend.