In the early morning hours, markets received news that German Chancellor Merz stated Zelensky and Putin would not hold a meeting. Oil prices, which had been trading in a narrow range lacking clear drivers, began to rebound on this news, with gains reaching up to $1. The White House announced that Trump would make further statements regarding Russia and Ukraine later, though no additional updates have emerged as of this report. This demonstrates that developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation remain a key market focus. The German Chancellor's announcement indicates that peace between Russia and Ukraine still requires significant work, echoing what China told Russia when President Putin called Beijing: complex issues cannot be resolved simply.

The current crude oil market is relatively chaotic, as evidenced by the strength variations among different Middle Eastern oil grades. Reports suggest Saudi Arabia may cut its October crude oil prices for Asian buyers to address adequate supply and weak demand conditions. Regarding Russian oil supply issues, Trump previously gave Putin a two-week deadline, with potential U.S. sanctions on Russia still pending. Counting from the Alaska summit, this means the deadline falls this weekend. Facing increased punitive tariffs from the U.S., India has firmly stated it will continue purchasing Russian oil. Reports indicate India plans to increase Russian oil imports in September by an estimated 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. The confusion in news flow has created clear divergence in expectations for Russian oil. Any news development can cause oil price volatility, as seen in the early morning rebound. However, after rising $1, oil prices temporarily paused as markets await Trump's statement.

Putin's refusal to meet with Zelensky has now become a relatively certain outcome. With Trump's peace plan facing setbacks, who is ultimately to blame? Reports indicate that on the morning of the 28th, Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes on Kyiv (including the EU delegation building), firing 598 drones and 31 missiles at Ukraine, resulting in 14 deaths. The White House stated Trump was displeased with the overnight attacks on Ukraine.

Oil prices are trading weakly under high-level resistance, but low-level support remains evident. The oil market still needs time to resolve several pending issues. In the short term, setbacks in Russia-Ukraine developments bring uncertainty to markets, and oil prices may experience some volatility. Prices could spike due to geopolitical factors in the near term, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the enormous supply-side pressure facing oil markets is an unavoidable certainty. During price fluctuations, it's recommended to focus on selling opportunities at higher levels, participate cautiously, and pay attention to timing.

**Daily Market Data** [1] WTI crude futures closed up $0.45 or 0.7% at $64.6/barrel; Brent crude futures closed up $0.54 or 0.8% at $67.98/barrel; INE crude futures closed up 1.14% at 486.6 yuan. [2] Dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.87; USD/CNY on Hong Kong exchange fell 0.36% to 7.1269; U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.15% to 112.61; Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.16% to 45,636.9.

**Recent News** [1] **Russian Presidential Spokesperson: No Air Ceasefire Agreement Reached Between Russia and Ukraine** On August 28, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated that security guarantees are among the most important issues in resolving the Ukrainian problem and appear on the agenda. No agreement has been reached between Russia and Ukraine regarding a possible air ceasefire. Russia remains interested in continuing negotiations. Regarding Russian armed forces' strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, Peskov commented that Russian strikes were successful, Ukrainian targets were destroyed, and the special military operation continues. On Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, Peskov said the fuel market has adequate supply, and the government is taking measures to ensure energy and gasoline price stability. Peskov also stated that Western investigations have not contacted Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline explosion. The Kremlin hopes the Nord Stream explosion investigation will be completed and the perpetrators' names will be disclosed.

[2] **Middle East Crude Market Shows Divergence: Murban and Dubai Crude Premiums Rise While Oman Crude Falls** ⑴ Thursday saw divergent trends in Middle East crude markets. UAE Murban crude spot premiums rose further, hitting seven-month highs, while Dubai crude spot premiums also gained 24 cents to $2.28/barrel. ⑵ In contrast, Oman crude spot premiums fell sharply to two-month lows, with prices dropping from $69.45/barrel to $68.53/barrel. ⑴ Murban crude price increases were mainly supported by spot purchases and limited Abu Dhabi exports. ⑷ Despite U.S. tariffs on India, India may continue purchasing Russian oil to maximize refining profits. ⑸ Market reports suggest Saudi Arabia may cut October crude prices for Asian buyers to address adequate supply and weak demand. ⑹ Additionally, Russian crude supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via the Friendship pipeline were disrupted by Ukrainian attacks but have since resumed. ⑺ U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week due to rising demand.

[3] **India to Increase Russian Oil Purchases in September Despite Tariffs** (1) Traders indicate that despite punitive U.S. tariffs aimed at forcing India to halt oil trade with Russia and push Moscow toward a Ukrainian peace agreement, India's Russian crude imports are expected to rise in September. Three trading sources involved in oil sales to India said Indian refineries' Russian oil purchases in September would increase 10-20% from August, adding 150,000-300,000 barrels daily. Russia will have more crude exports next month as planned and unplanned refinery shutdowns have weakened its ability to process crude into fuel. Ukraine recently attacked 10 Russian refineries, affecting up to 17% of the country's refining capacity. BNP Paribas noted in a report: "These tariffs are part of broader U.S.-India trade discussions. Given India's increasing domestic refinery utilization driven by discounted Russian oil, we believe India will not significantly cut Russian oil imports." ⑵ Due to Ukrainian drone attacks and refinery maintenance reducing Russian domestic refining capacity, Russian exporters must sell crude at lower prices. ⑶ September-loading Russian Urals crude discounts to Brent widened to $2-3/barrel, compared to just $1.5 in August. ⑷ Analysts indicate that unless India issues clear policy directives or major trade-economic shifts occur, Russian crude will remain a core supply source. ⑸ CLSA predicts that if India stops importing Russian crude, global supply could decrease by about 1 million barrels/day, potentially pushing oil prices near $100/barrel short-term. ⑹ The EU has also tightened price caps on Russian crude, setting a new ceiling at $47.60/barrel, below current market prices, which may impact future trade. ⑺ India has averaged 1.6 million barrels daily of Russian crude imports this year, representing about 1.5% of global supply and meeting 40% of its oil needs.