On November 6, the main contracts for
1. **Low Valuation and Concentrated Maintenance Plans for PTA**: PTA processing margins remain low, with figures below CNY 250/ton persisting for nearly four months. Some producers have cut output due to losses, and planned maintenance shutdowns have been gradually implemented since November. Coupled with earlier anti-overcapacity expectations, concerns have grown that more PTA units may halt operations. Currently, further compression of PTA processing margins appears limited.
2. **No New PTA Capacity Planned for 2026, Supply Growth to Slow**: The peak period of PTA capacity expansion has ended, with no new projects scheduled for 2026. Over the next five years, only about 10 million tons of new PTA capacity is planned, significantly slowing supply growth. Meanwhile, new polyester capacity downstream is expected to ease PTA supply pressure gradually.
However, most current shutdowns are scheduled maintenance, such as the 2.5-million-ton unit at Xin Feng Ming, which was widely anticipated. Even accounting for these shutdowns, PTA inventories in November are not expected to decline significantly. By December, as some units resume operations and seasonal demand weakens, PTA may face renewed inventory accumulation pressure.
Additionally, while the concentrated capacity expansion phase has concluded, the supply impact from recent expansions is still materializing. A full recovery in PTA profitability will take time.
In summary, while the PTA spot market remains well-supplied and long-term expectations are positive, near-term pressures persist, requiring a balanced assessment.
**Risk Warnings**: Macro policy impacts; significant crude oil price fluctuations.