Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks rallied sharply on September 23, with Ronshine China surging more than 34%, while Vanke Enterprise climbed over 14%. Sunac China advanced more than 9%, and Sino-Ocean Group gained over 7%, with Country Garden, CIFI Holdings, and Jinhui Holdings all rising more than 6%.

JPMorgan issued a research report noting that mainland property stocks have recently outperformed the Hang Seng Index, led by Sunac China, which the bank attributes to policy-driven speculation. The report highlights that recent market excitement stems from expectations that authorities may unveil a nationwide mortgage subsidy policy before the National Day holiday. JPMorgan points out that similar speculation emerged in November and December 2025, triggering short-term rebounds in the sector, though no subsidy policy was ultimately announced.

JPMorgan stated that the actual impact will depend on the policy's scale and implementation details, as similar measures typically come with caps. For instance, a 1 percentage point mortgage rate subsidy would lower the effective rate from 3.05% to 2.05%. However, based on existing local precedents where the cap is only RMB 20,000 to RMB 50,000 per property, the expected impact would be limited. Using Shanghai as an example, with a loan amount of RMB 5 million and a cap of RMB 50,000 per home, a 1 percentage point subsidy would equate to roughly four months of mortgage interest savings.

On the policy stance front, at the State Council Information Office's housing and construction briefing on September 18 regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development clarified that the property market has undergone two transformations: a major shift in supply-demand dynamics and the entry into an era of existing stock, with second-hand home transactions already accounting for 52% of total turnover in the first eight months of the year. Market participants interpret this top-level positioning as signaling a policy framework shift from expansion-driven growth to quality enhancement of existing properties, with areas such as second-hand home transactions and urban renewal expected to receive increased policy support.

Additionally, the newly revised Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Funds took effect on September 20, expanding the eligible withdrawal scenarios from six to nine categories. Home renovation and property management fee payments are now included in the withdrawal scope, repositioning the system from focusing primarily on home purchase support to covering the full housing lifecycle, including buying, renting, renovating, and maintenance.