Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan has published an extensive research report on physical AI, significantly raising projections for the humanoid robot market. The report highlights logistics and warehousing as the initial battleground for widespread adoption, with automotive manufacturing expected to follow as the second major wave. Sheridan's updated forecasts suggest global humanoid robot shipments could reach approximately 890,000 units by 2030 and 6.5 million units by 2035, representing a market opportunity of around $138 billion.

The revision marks a substantial upward adjustment from previous estimates. The base case for 2026 has been raised from 51,000 to 75,000 units, the 2030 forecast increased from 256,000 to 890,000 units, and the 2035 projection jumped from 1.4 million to 6.5 million units. Each humanoid robot is expected to generate semiconductor demand worth between $3,000 and $6,000 or more, encompassing high-performance computing modules, analog and mixed-signal chips, and edge storage solutions.

Where initial adoption will take hold

Logistics and warehousing operations represent the primary early-use case for general-purpose humanoid robots, according to Sheridan's analysis. Amazon and Walmart are leading this transformation, with Amazon currently deploying over one million robots across more than 300 facilities. Walmart has extended freight automation to all 3,100 of its U.S. stores, with automated systems processing over half of its e-commerce orders. Goldman Sachs estimates that automation deployment could generate approximately $72 billion in service cost savings for Amazon by 2030, potentially boosting EBIT margins by around 240 basis points in an optimistic scenario, equivalent to a leverage effect of roughly 5.6% of the company's total service costs.

Automotive industry application follows

Following logistics, the automotive sector emerges as the next key market for humanoid robots. Vehicle body welding is already highly automated, yet final assembly and parts sorting continue to depend heavily on manual labor. Automakers are actively exploring humanoid robot adoption to address workforce challenges. Goldman Sachs scenario analysis indicates that if manufacturers allocate between 10% and 50% of their purchases to humanoid robots priced between $20,000 and $60,000, they could achieve margin expansion of 1% to 6%, though the net impact may be lower if some savings are passed to consumers through price reductions.

Software-defined factories disrupt traditional players

The proliferation of humanoid robots is accelerating the transition from hardware-bound programmable logic controllers to software-defined virtual PLCs in factory control systems. Sheridan projects annual growth of 20% to 30% for the vPLC market. This shift poses challenges to established industrial automation leaders including Siemens, Rockwell Automation, and Schneider Electric, whose traditional hardware-software bundling models face increasing disruption.

Semiconductor demand across robot production

The mass adoption of humanoid robots will generate structural growth for the semiconductor supply chain. Each unit presents an addressable market of $3,000 to $6,000 or more in semiconductor value, broken down into high-performance computing modules ranging from $1,500 to $4,000, analog and mixed-signal chips valued between $750 and $1,050, and edge storage solutions from $600 to $800.

Following these upward revisions, Sheridan provided clients with a list of companies positioned to benefit from the physical AI wave. Global venture capital investment in robotics accelerated in late 2024. In the Chinese market, the Solactive China Humanoid Robot Index, which tracks 20 listed humanoid robot and component companies, peaked in September 2025 and has since given back some of the gains accumulated since late summer 2024. Additionally, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta recently toured Tesla's Fremont facility and reported to clients on the latest progress in converting the discontinued Model S and Model X production lines for Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing.

Executive survey highlights automation expectations

Goldman Sachs also released initial findings from its Executive Perspectives global survey focused on robotics and physical AI themes. Approximately 40% of surveyed corporate executives anticipate that at least 10% of their workflow will be automated through general-purpose robots within the next three to five years.