International investment bank UBS has issued a bullish research report on Netherlands-based lithography equipment giant ASML Holding NV, maintaining an optimistic "buy" rating while significantly raising the 12-month price target from 660 euros to 750 euros. The firm emphasizes that after underperforming the European stock market by approximately 20% annually, ASML Holding NV is poised to return to a "high-quality compound growth" trajectory, driven by strong expansion in High-NA (high numerical aperture) EUV lithography equipment demand from semiconductor manufacturing giants including SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. As High-NA technology transitions from initial verification stages to chip manufacturing deployment phases, the company appears well-positioned for recovery.

Latest statistics show that ASML Holding NV, as the most important participant in the semiconductor industry chain and equipment sector, has a market capitalization of approximately $290 billion, currently trading at a 27x price-to-earnings ratio, and has distributed dividends for 19 consecutive years. With rising market expectations for High-NA EUV lithography equipment demand and optimistic sentiment conveyed by research reports from international investment institutions like UBS, ASML Holding NV's US ADR shares closed Thursday's trading session up 2.25% at $753.43, while European trading saw gains of 3.57% to 647.6 euros.

UBS analysts believe that market concerns about declining lithography intensity and China market uncertainties are now well-known, enabling investors to shift focus from relatively weak 2025-2026 performance outlook to positive expectations of 20% annual compound earnings per share growth from 2026 to 2030. This latest growth forecast appears strongly supported by ASML Holding NV's robust financial fundamentals, with trailing twelve-month revenue growth reaching 26.4% and healthy gross margins maintained at 52.5%.

UBS anticipates a significant performance inflection point in 2027, primarily driven by TSMC's mass production of A14 (1.4nm-class) advanced process nodes, combined with Samsung and Intel's focus on sub-2nm processes, and SK Hynix's acceleration of next-generation DRAM development. These factors are expected to substantially boost demand for High-NA equipment, which commands higher prices than conventional EUV systems.

Based on bottom-up analysis, the institution believes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) exposure steps for these nodes will increase from 19-22 to 20-24, while demand uncertainties surrounding Intel and Samsung are expected to gradually dissipate. UBS analysts' research on High-NA technology adoption indicates meaningful large-scale deployment over the next two years, with projected High-NA shipments of 6 and 10 units in 2027 and 2028 respectively, representing approximately 30% of ASML Holding NV's overall revenue growth in those years.

Additionally, UBS suggests several potential catalysts over the next year could support accelerated stock price expansion, including: clearer information about EUV exposure increases at major semiconductor industry events, commentary on High-NA adoption and penetration rates during quarterly earnings calls, the launch of a new low-NA EUV-F model with significantly higher average selling prices in the second half of 2026, and new customer announcements from Intel and Samsung.

ASML Holding NV's 2026 performance outlook remains unclear. In other developments, the company's previously released earnings report showed strong second-quarter orders of 5.5 billion euros, up 41% sequentially and exceeding market expectations of approximately 4.8 billion euros. However, management narrowed the 2025 fiscal year revenue guidance to around the midpoint of the 300-350 billion euro range, reducing 2025 revenue growth expectations to approximately 15% year-over-year. The company also projected third-quarter 2025 revenue between 7.4-7.9 billion euros, below the market's prior expectation of 8.3 billion euros.

During July's earnings conference, ASML Holding NV stated it could not confirm whether growth would be achieved in 2026. CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged: "Constantly changing macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions bring increasingly large-scale uncertainties; therefore, while we continue preparing for 2026 growth, we cannot confirm at this stage whether this growth will occur." The unclear 2026 growth prospects represent important logic behind ASML Holding NV's significant underperformance relative to European and US market indices in recent years.

Deutsche Bank recently lowered ASML Holding NV's price target to 700 euros, citing concerns about EUV shipment growth rates. Wolfe Research maintains an "outperform" rating with a price target of 800 euros, emphasizing the company's strategic shift toward higher-priced next-generation EUV lithography systems and increased profits from large-scale equipment upgrades within the existing installed base. Meanwhile, Bank of America adjusted its price target to 724 euros, lowering third and fourth-quarter order expectations due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Erste Group downgraded ASML Holding NV from "buy" to "hold," expressing concerns about 2026 revenue growth prospects. Similarly, Freedom Broker downgraded to "hold" after mixed reactions to second-quarter results that exceeded expectations but provided mixed guidance for the next quarter.

The transition to the "High-NA era" in lithography equipment represents a long-term positive catalyst for ASML Holding NV's fundamental performance. Investment institutions bullish on the stock, including UBS and Wolfe Research, view the collective shift by leading chip manufacturers TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix toward next-generation EUV lithography equipment - High-NA EUV systems - as potentially clarifying and strengthening the company's long-term performance growth prospects.

The accelerating pace of "High-NA transition from laboratory verification to chip manufacturing deployment" represents a core driver of current bullish sentiment and valuation reassessment for ASML Holding NV. SK Hynix recently announced completion of the industry's first "commercial" High-NA (EXE:5200B) on-site assembly at its M16 facility in Icheon, Korea, while Intel previously received the world's first High-NA system, significantly reinforcing expectations for "High-NA progression from verification to end deployment."

Netherlands-based ASML Holding NV is the world's largest lithography systems manufacturer, with its lithography equipment playing crucial roles in chip manufacturing processes. The company serves as the sole supplier of the most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems used by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel for manufacturing cutting-edge process chips. If semiconductors represent the "crown jewel" of modern human industry, then lithography equipment constitutes the essential tools for producing these "jewels." More importantly, ASML Holding NV is the sole global supplier of EUV lithography equipment required for manufacturing the most advanced process chips, including 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm semiconductors.

Therefore, demand from major customers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung serves as a barometer for semiconductor industry health. Undoubtedly, lithography equipment represents the pinnacle of today's human technological achievements. Netherlands-based ASML Holding NV's capability to manufacture the world's most advanced EUV lithography systems stems from its assembly of the world's top optical and equipment hardware technology talent, along with cutting-edge scientific theories and customized chip manufacturing equipment processes. With its EUV lithography capabilities, ASML Holding NV enjoys recognition as representing the "pinnacle of human technology" in the technology sector.

For TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics' development of 2nm and sub-2nm node manufacturing technologies, ASML Holding NV's High-NA EUV lithography systems are critically important. High-NA's 0.55 NA + anamorphic optics deliver new boundaries in resolution, mask, and process integration, making High-NA a "powerful tool" for accelerating advanced nodes, reducing multiple patterning, and improving linewidth/overlay performance.

Compared to standard EUV lithography systems currently produced by ASML Holding NV, the main difference lies in the use of larger numerical apertures. High-NA EUV technology employs 0.55 NA lenses capable of achieving 8nm-level resolution, while standard EUV technology uses 0.33 NA lenses. Consequently, this new NA technology enables printing smaller feature sizes on chips, proving critical for 2nm and sub-2nm process technology development. For NVIDIA AI GPUs and other ultra-high-performance AI accelerators used in AI training/inference applications, 2nm and sub-2nm processes are crucial for AI system computational power improvements.

Currently, NVIDIA's H100/H200 and Blackwell architecture AI GPUs primarily utilize TSMC's 4nm process technology, while NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin architecture AI GPUs and Apple's next-generation AI smartphone chips are expected to adopt TSMC's more advanced 2nm process technology.