Last week (September 1-5), gold markets surged amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence, combined with unexpectedly weak employment data. The macroeconomic outlook of monetary easing and stagflation made gold a sought-after asset. Domestic investors continued to show some diversion toward equity markets.
From a market perspective, the past week witnessed technical analysis, fundamentals, and macroeconomic data collectively driving one of gold's strongest weekly performances in recent years. Spot gold continuously broke through key resistance levels, setting new historical highs and consolidating its dominant position in the multi-year uptrend.
The factors driving gold higher last week remained the weakening economic data and concerns about Fed independence, along with increasing influence of Trump officials on economic data interpretation and policy formulation. The August non-farm payroll report showed only 220,000 jobs added, significantly below expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Looking ahead, the baseline scenario expects US unemployment to rise to around 4.5%. If it reaches 4.6%, it would trigger recession signals again, leading markets to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
Under Republican control, Milano will likely pass Senate confirmation and assume a board position before the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, while Cook, who was dismissed by Trump, has yet to receive temporary court exemption and may be unable to exercise voting rights at the September meeting. Therefore, markets have raised expectations for near-term monetary easing, stimulating gold buying.
From a longer-term perspective, Treasury Secretary Bessent and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett both suggested that non-farm data has been "incorrectly calculated" for an extended period and requires significant downward revisions. This indicates Trump is no longer merely seeking to enhance monetary policy influence but is also significantly increasing demands for interpretation rights over economic data. Against this backdrop, market expectations for increased easing measures and scale are logical. Combined with the latest corporate survey results during the week, tariff-based price increases are forthcoming, making gold a favored asset amid the macroeconomic outlook of easing and stagflation.
Regarding market dynamics last week, US August non-farm data significantly missed expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on the 5th that August non-farm employment increased by 220,000, far below economists' estimate of 750,000. Additionally, US August unemployment rose to 4.3%, reaching the highest level since 2021, raising concerns that the labor market may be experiencing more severe deterioration.
US August manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data on the 2nd showing the August manufacturing PMI rose from July's 48.0 to 48.7, still below the 50 level indicating industry contraction. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the US economy. Economists surveyed by Reuters previously predicted PMI would rise to 49.0.
Trump's tariff policies have triggered corporate pricing expectations. According to the August Richmond Fed business survey, 46% of surveyed companies reported goods imports affected by tariffs. Among tariff-affected companies, approximately 60% have already raised prices, 45% indicated they will continue raising prices, and only 25% of tariff-affected companies have not yet raised prices. Regarding timing, 50% of tariff-affected companies planning price increases expect to raise prices within 2025, while 29% indicated they will raise prices in 2026.
The Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its feeder funds (002610, 002611) track RMB gold price performance by investing in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Investors can purchase feeder funds through official channels such as the Bosera Fund APP and official website, with a minimum investment of 1 RMB (subject to specific channel announcements). These funds further enrich investment options for gold among investors.
Disclaimer: All information in this report comes from public sources, and our company makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of such information. Under no circumstances do the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute our company's actual investment results or investment advice to investors.
Unless otherwise specified, data sources in this report come from Wind, Bloomberg, or Bosera Fund.
This report is copyrighted by Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd.
Investment involves risks; please choose carefully. Bosera Gold ETF and feeder funds risk level: Medium.
Risk Disclosure Statement Dear Investors: Funds involve risks, and investment requires caution. Publicly offered securities investment funds (hereinafter "funds") are long-term investment tools whose main function is to diversify investments and reduce individual risks from investing in single securities. Funds differ from financial instruments like bank deposits that provide fixed return expectations. When purchasing fund products, you may share in investment returns based on your holdings while also potentially bearing investment losses.
Before making investment decisions, please carefully read legal documents including fund contracts, prospectuses, and fund product summaries, as well as this risk disclosure statement. Fully understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and product features, seriously consider various risk factors, and based on your investment objectives, investment horizon, investment experience, and financial situation, fully consider your risk tolerance. Make rational judgments and cautious investment decisions based on understanding product conditions and sales appropriateness opinions.
According to relevant laws and regulations, Bosera Fund makes the following risk disclosures:
1. Based on different investment targets, funds are categorized into equity funds, hybrid funds, bond funds, money market funds, fund-of-funds, commodity funds, and other types. Investing in different fund types will yield different return expectations and involve varying degrees of risk. Generally, the higher a fund's expected returns, the greater the risk you bear.
2. Funds may face various risks during investment operations, including market risks as well as management risks, technical risks, and compliance risks specific to the fund. Massive redemption risk is unique to open-end funds, occurring when net redemption applications on a single open day exceed a certain percentage of total fund shares (10% for open-end funds, 20% for periodically open funds, except for special products regulated by CSRC). You may be unable to redeem all requested fund shares promptly, or redemption payments may be delayed.
3. You should fully understand the differences between regular fixed-amount investment and zero-deposit whole-withdrawal savings methods. Regular fixed-amount investment is a simple investment method that guides long-term investing and averages investment costs, but it cannot avoid inherent fund investment risks, cannot guarantee investor returns, and is not an equivalent wealth management alternative to savings.
4. Fund managers commit to managing and utilizing fund assets with honesty, trustworthiness, and diligence, but do not guarantee fund profitability or minimum returns. Past performance and net asset value levels do not predict future performance. Performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute guarantees for this fund's performance. Bosera Fund reminds you of the "buyer beware" principle in fund investment. After making investment decisions, you bear investment risks arising from fund operations and net asset value changes. Fund managers, custodians, sales institutions, and related entities make no commitments or guarantees regarding fund investment returns.
This fund's investment scope includes legally issued and listed stocks (including small and medium-cap boards, ChiNext, STAR Market, and other stocks approved for listing by CSRC). STAR Market stocks carry specific risks including liquidity risk, delisting risk, and investment concentration risk.
5. [Bosera Gold Exchange Traded Open-End Securities Investment Fund (159937), Bosera Gold ETF Feeder Class A Shares: 002610, Class C Shares: 002611] (hereinafter "this fund") was applied for by Bosera Fund (hereinafter "fund manager") according to relevant laws, regulations, and agreements, and was approved and registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (hereinafter "CSRC"). The fund contract, prospectus, and product summary have been publicly disclosed through the CSRC Fund Electronic Disclosure Website http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/index.html and the fund manager's website http://www.bosera.com/index.html. CSRC registration of this fund does not indicate substantive judgment or guarantee of the fund's investment value, market prospects, and returns, nor does it indicate that investing in this fund is risk-free.