Pop Mart will release its first-half financial report on August 19, 2025. Through its IP globalization strategy and supply chain optimization, the company is expected to achieve overseas revenue exceeding domestic revenue for the first time, becoming the core engine of business growth. Institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have raised profit forecasts and are optimistic about its long-term valuation recovery potential.

Market Forecast

Bloomberg expects Pop Mart to achieve revenue of 13.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 201.9% year-on-year, adjusted earnings per share of 3.18 yuan, up 314% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 4.298 billion yuan, up 322.39% year-on-year.

The market generally believes that in the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's overseas revenue proportion will exceed domestic revenue for the first time, reaching over 50%, becoming the biggest driver of performance growth.

The existing business with the brightest development prospects is overseas business expansion. In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's overseas revenue surged by 475%-480% year-on-year, with the Americas market growing 895%-900%, Europe 600%-605%, and Southeast Asia 345%-350%. By the end of June, the company had over 150 overseas stores, with store productivity reaching 1.5 times that of the domestic market, validating the effectiveness of the globalization strategy. DBS Bank forecasts that overseas revenue will exceed 50% in 2025, becoming the company's largest revenue source.

2024 Year Review

In 2024, Pop Mart achieved revenue of 13.04 billion yuan (RMB, same below), up 106.9% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 3.40 billion yuan, up 185.9% year-on-year. Chinese mainland revenue was 7.97 billion yuan, up 52.3% year-on-year; overseas, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan business revenue was 5.07 billion yuan, up 375.2% year-on-year, accounting for 38.9% of revenue.

Full-year figurine revenue was 6.94 billion yuan, up 44.7% year-on-year, proportion declining to 53.2%; plush toys achieved explosive growth, with revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, up 1289% year-on-year, accounting for 21.7% of revenue; MEGA revenue was 1.68 billion yuan, up 146.1% year-on-year; derivatives and other revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, up 156.2% year-on-year.

Offline channel revenue in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets was 3.071 billion yuan, accounting for 23.6% of total revenue, up 380% year-on-year; online sales channel revenue in overseas markets was 1.455 billion yuan, up 834% year-on-year, accounting for 11.2% of total revenue. Among this, revenue from the overseas official website grew 1246.2% year-on-year; Shopee revenue grew 656.0% year-on-year; TikTok platform revenue grew 5779.8% year-on-year.

This Quarter Outlook

Co-Branding, Owned IPs Blossoming Across Multiple Areas

The leading IP "The Monsters" has ignited a global craze, boosting both brand image and sales. Its core character Labubu's third-generation vinyl plush product series "Alert: Ahead!" was launched globally in April 2025, sparking buying frenzies in multiple countries and regions. Google search popularity and WeChat index both soared to peaks, propelling the Pop Mart App to the top of the U.S. APP STORE shopping chart. The popularity of the products and IP has been effectively translated into enhanced brand influence and significant growth in store foot traffic, injecting strong momentum for sustained sales growth. This drove related product GMV to exceed 3.7 billion yuan in June alone, with the market premium rate for its hidden edition briefly exceeding 40 times.

The company's diversified IP portfolio demonstrates strong cross-cultural appeal, successfully capturing and sustaining market popularity. Besides "The Monsters," potential IPs like CRYBABY (Southeast Asia), SKULLPANDA (Europe), Peach Riot (North America), and Hirono are performing actively in their respective regional markets.

The IP co-branding strategy has proven highly effective, with significant sales pull. The "Ne Zha 2" co-branded series has been in high demand since its pre-sale in early April, with shipping dates extended multiple times due to strong demand. This success case fully validates the effectiveness of the company's IP co-branding strategy and lays a solid foundation for subsequent collaborations with globally renowned IPs like "One Piece" and "Harry Potter." The series' popularity also pushed the company's online sales proportion to 42%, powerfully demonstrating the strong driving force of IP co-branding on sales.

Deepening Globalization Strategy & Organizational Restructuring

In April 2025, Pop Mart announced the largest organizational restructuring in five years, focusing on regional strategy and middle platform synergy. The company established four regional headquarters: Greater China, Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe. Joint COOs Si De and Wendeyi are respectively responsible for the operations management of Greater China & Americas and Asia Pacific & Europe. This restructuring unleashes overseas growth potential, accelerating local decision-making, enhancing middle platform resource reuse efficiency, and building talent incentives and a global talent pipeline, laying the groundwork for continued high overseas growth. As of the end of June 2025, Pop Mart operated 530 stores globally, with over 180 offline stores (including pop-ups) in Chinese Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas regions, a net increase of nearly 50 from the end of 2024. With further expansion into core cities in Europe and the US, continuous improvement in store productivity, and refined operations such as membership systems and localized event marketing, overseas performance is expected to sustain growth.

Analyst Views

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Pop Mart has proven that its IP operational capability is underestimated by the market. The explosive growth of Labubu from 6% of sales to a pillar IP, and the rise of new IPs (Crybaby, Twinkle Twinkle), validates the effectiveness of the company's "dual-engine" model of "own IP incubation + top-tier IP co-branding." The firm raised Pop Mart's target price from HK$302 to HK$365, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, and forecasts the company's 2025 revenue and profit to grow 140% and 210% respectively, higher than previous expectations.

DBS Bank assigned Pop Mart a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$312, citing robust demand for its own IPs such as Labubu and Molly, expecting the company's 2025 revenue and profit to grow by over 1.4 times and 1.8 times respectively.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report that Pop Mart's ability to extend the popularity of its IPs (especially Labubu IP) into global markets, including large markets like North America and Europe, proves the effectiveness of its globalization strategy. Based on the earnings preview, Goldman raised its 2025-2027 adjusted net profit forecast by 15%-22%, expecting 2025 revenue and adjusted net profit to grow 152% and 213% respectively, reaching 32.8 billion yuan and 10.0 billion yuan. The firm believes the company's gross profit margin will rise from 66.8% in 2024 to 70.0% in 2025, and net profit margin will increase from 26.1% in 2024 to 32% in 2025, with sustained optimization in profitability.

JPMorgan Chase analysts are optimistic about Pop Mart's long-term investment thesis, including its strong IP operational capabilities (global super IPs, animation, theme parks, licensing) and IP monetization capabilities (geographic and category expansion). The bank raised its target price from HK$330 to HK$340, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, based on a 1.5x PEG valuation, equivalent to 34x forecasted 2026 P/E. JPMorgan believes the significant expansion in net profit margin is mainly driven by three factors: the rising contribution of overseas business, which enjoys higher gross and operating margins; the gradual emergence of economies of scale; and continuous product cost optimization and strengthened expense control.

Conclusion

In the long run, Pop Mart is accelerating its transformation into a global IP operation platform. Through the "dual-engine" model of "own IP incubation + top-tier IP co-branding," it aims to build a diversified IP and product portfolio. With accelerating local supply chain development, improved membership systems, and deeper content marketing, the company is poised to break the boundaries of a "trendy toy giant" and evolve into a "global cultural group," opening up a second growth curve.