Petroleum and petrochemical stocks demonstrated robust performance on Monday (September 9), with shipping and gas sectors leading the gains. By market close, China Merchants Energy Shipping hit the daily limit up, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation surged over 5%, and Nanjing Tanker Corporation, Xingtong Shipping, and Guanghui Energy were also among the top gainers. The Guozheng Oil & Gas Index, tracked by the Huabao Oil ETF (159019), closed up 0.81%. As of September 8, 2026, these five companies held index weights of 3.94%, 3.43%, 2.23%, 0.42%, and 4.52%, respectively.

In terms of news flow, the US issued strong signals early last week about further strikes on Iran, dampening expectations for US-Iran negotiations and providing support for oil prices. However, gains were initially capped by Iran and Oman's proposal to open a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the gradual recovery of crude exports from Qatar and Kuwait. In the latter part of the week, geopolitical tensions escalated again as multiple tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly heightening concerns about disrupted passage and potential supply interruptions of Middle Eastern crude, which swiftly lifted the geopolitical risk premium.

Soochow Securities commented that if the conflict intensifies further or the Strait of Hormuz faces renewed blockage, oil prices could continue to surge. Conversely, if the situation de-escalates and shipping traffic resumes, the geopolitical risk premium might rapidly deflate. Key factors to monitor include the progress of the conflict, the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ production policies, and changes in US crude inventories.

CITIC Construction Investment forecasts a likely stalemate in the US-Iran conflict for the second half of the year. With Middle Eastern supply recovering and floating storage clearing, the market faces a tug-of-war between limited demand recovery and regional low inventories, suggesting oil prices will likely enter a period of wide-range volatility. Ping An Securities notes that with episodic escalations in the conflict, relatively low transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, and US crude inventories at historical lows, short-term oil price support remains firm.

Amidst sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic oil companies have reduced their earnings sensitivity to oil prices through integrated upstream-downstream operations and diversified oil and gas sourcing. They are also accelerating investment in opening up domestic offshore oil and gas resources to lower external energy dependence. Analysts recommend focusing on oil companies with significant production growth potential and cost advantages, as well as those with deep refining-chemical integration, proven cost reduction and efficiency gains, and strong earnings resilience.

For a one-stop investment in the entire oil and gas value chain and to capture the energy security dividend, the Huabao Oil ETF (159019) warrants attention. Tracking the Guozheng Oil & Gas Index, the ETF's constituent stocks cover 50 A-shares across oil and gas exploration, equipment and services, and gas transmission and sales sectors, with China's 'Big Three' oil companies accounting for nearly 40% of the total weight. As of September 8, 2026, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC held weights of 15.49%, 12.4%, and 13.17%, respectively. Please refer to the fund's legal documents for fee details.

Investors are reminded that recent market volatility may be significant, and short-term fluctuations do not predict future performance. Please invest rationally based on your own capital situation and risk tolerance, and pay close attention to position and risk management. The Huabao Oil ETF passively tracks the Guozheng Oil & Gas Index, and the companies mentioned are solely for objective display of index constituents and do not constitute stock recommendations or represent the fund manager's investment direction.